El Niño threatens millions in Africa as UN scales up anticipatory action
El Niño is putting millions of lives at risk across eastern and southern Africa, but the United Nations is helping communities prepare for its impact, according to a press release by United Nations (UN) News. Forecasters expect El Niño to intensify in coming months and possibly stretch into early 2027, threatening farmers, mothers, and children from Somalia to Zambia. The climate pattern is fueling floods in some regions and droughts in others, leaving vulnerable populations without safety nets. UN humanitarian agencies are moving early to reduce suffering. Their message is clear: prepare now, or pay later.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern, a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts weather around the world. It is not new, and it is not caused by climate change, although climate change can worsen its impact. In eastern Africa, from Somalia to Tanzania, it tends to bring too much rain, triggering flash floods, landslides, and destroyed infrastructure. In southern Africa, from Zambia to South Africa and from Namibia to Mozambique, it usually means the opposite, with crops failing and pastures disappearing. Different weather, but the same outcome for the most vulnerable people.
Esnart Chongani, a farmer in Zambia, said the 2024 drought meant her family harvested no maize at all. Martha Kalumbi in Malawi said her baby was hospitalized for malnutrition after a failed harvest left her family with nothing. In Somalia, a mother of nine named Asha Mohamed was pushed from her home by the 2023 floods. Floods also contaminate water supplies, fueling outbreaks of cholera and other waterborne diseases, while standing water breeds mosquitoes and drives up malaria. People lose homes and get displaced, sometimes for good.
The UN is getting ahead of El Niño because it can be forecast months in advance. Between 2023 and 2025, early anticipatory action funding reached over three million people across southern Africa and 5.5 million across eastern Africa. In Madagascar, families who received cash transfers and drought-resistant seeds ahead of time ate noticeably better than those who did not. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) are aiming to reach 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries with cash aid, resilient farming support, and livestock protection. In Zambia, the Government and international partners are investing in stronger weather-monitoring infrastructure.
As UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher put it: “The choice is clear: we can wait for disaster, or we can invest in resilience.” For communities that have already lived through El Niño once, that head start could make all the difference. Early warning systems, cash transfers, and resilient seeds are shifting the response from reactive to proactive. The UN’s joint appeal underscores the scale of the challenge across 22 high-risk countries. With El Niño expected to intensify, preparedness efforts will remain central to protecting lives.