Potential landslide losses in Central Asia estimated at US$3.59 billion

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a new analytical brief warning that landslides pose a hidden threat to critical urban infrastructure across Central Asia, with potential direct losses estimated at US$3.59 billion, according to a press release. Released in Almaty on 21 October 2026, the brief covers risks in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It highlights the need to account for landslide risks in urban planning and infrastructure development. The analysis identifies specific vulnerable zones and outlines practical measures. Its central message is that integrating landslide risk into planning is a regional priority.

Landslides, according to the brief, extend their consequences well beyond direct physical damage to roads, railways and buildings. The region spans diverse terrain, from foothill areas near Almaty to mountainous districts in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The EDB frames the issue as a hidden threat to critical urban infrastructure. The brief draws on a recent international example to illustrate cascading impacts. It is intended to inform both planners and investors across member countries.

Estimated direct losses amount to US$3.02 billion for roads, US$382 million for railways and US$186 million for buildings. Areas requiring particular attention include the Ayni district and parts of Dushanbe in Tajikistan. In Uzbekistan, these include the Akhangaran district in the Tashkent Region and a section of the Tashkent–Osh corridor. In Kazakhstan, selected foothill areas in Almaty and the Almaty Region are flagged. Together, these locations represent the geography of greatest exposure identified in the brief.

To illustrate cascading impacts, the brief cites events in Nepal on 24–27 September 2026, when slope failures disrupted transport and energy infrastructure. During those events, 31 bridges and hundreds of homes were damaged. In addition, 12 hydropower plants with a combined capacity of 358 MW were disconnected from the grid, leading to power supply restrictions for industrial users. The EDB notes that “the consequences of landslides extend beyond direct physical damage.” The example underscores how a single hazard can ripple through multiple sectors.

The brief sets out practical measures to reduce exposure across Central Asia. Key steps include complying with regulations in water protection zones and restricting construction on floodplains and unstable slopes. Monitoring, timely warnings, established evacuation routes and regular drills are called essential to reducing impacts. The design of bridges, roads, water intakes and power grids should account for the potential for cascading failures and include alternative transport links. The EDB concludes that accounting for landslide risks in urban planning and infrastructure investment is the region’s priority.