Floods could displace over 800,000 people in Somalia, IOM warns

Nearly 874,000 people in Somalia could be forced from their homes over the next three months as rising rivers and heavy rainfall threaten communities already affected by drought and repeated displacement, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned on 21 October 2026, according to a press release. The warning, issued from Geneva and Mogadishu, highlights an urgent humanitarian risk as Somalia enters its rainy season. IOM is calling for immediate international support to scale up preparedness. Flooding is projected to account for the vast majority of displacement. Communities across several regions are already showing early signs of flood impact.

New projections by IOM and the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) estimate that 874,319 people could be displaced between October and December. Flooding accounts for 92 per cent of the projected displacement. The rainy season is forecast to bring above-normal rainfall amid strengthening El Niño conditions. Many families at risk have already been displaced before. They have very little left to fall back on.

IOM has secured only about 14.4 per cent of the required USD 16.62 million needed to prepare for and respond to El Niño-related flooding. The funding is intended to support more than 517,000 people in flood-prone communities across Somalia. In Dollow, the Jubba River is approaching flood levels. The Shabelle River is rising towards the top of its banks in Jowhar. Heavy rainfall in Baidoa has already damaged homes and forced families to flee several neighborhoods.

Beletweyne and Gaalkacyo are among the areas facing the greatest threat, with approximately 229,000 and 82,000 people respectively at risk of displacement. Families living in overcrowded displacement sites are particularly vulnerable, with inadequate access to safe water and sanitation raising concerns about disease outbreaks. “We are looking at the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people losing their homes in just a matter of weeks. Many of these families have already been displaced before and have very little left to fall back on,” said Manuel Marques Pereira, IOM Somalia Chief of Mission. He stressed that there is still time to reduce the impact, but the window is closing.

Rising floodwaters could destroy crops, disrupt livelihoods, contaminate water sources, and cut off access to healthcare and other essential services. IOM is working with Somali authorities and local communities to strengthen early warning systems, identify safer evacuation routes, and prepare emergency assistance. Funding shortages are limiting efforts to establish safe relocation areas and provide essential shelter, clean water, sanitation, and healthcare. IOM is calling for urgent international support before rising floodwaters force more families from their homes. The organization emphasized the need to avoid another cycle of displacement.