Projecting migration from Africa and the Middle East into EU countries, driven by climate-change-related crop failure, until 2050: ClimateMigration2050

Programme(s): H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility

Topic(s): MSCA-IF-2019 - Individual Fellowships

Call for proposal: H2020-MSCA-IF-2019

Funding Scheme: MSCA-IF-EF-ST - Standard EF

Grant agreement ID: 888404

Project description:

Modelling climate change-related international migration

Crop shortages associated with climate change could become a major factor in international migration in the coming decades. The EU-funded ClimateMigration2050 project aims to integrate state-of-the-art climate, crop, economic and migration models in order to predict migration flows from African and Middle Eastern countries into EU member states until 2050. The project's results will provide information to EU policymakers, enabling the optimisation of the future large-scale migration driven by climate change. The institutions involved with this interdisciplinary project will ensure the highest-quality research and training as well as the effective communication of results to EU policymakers and the public.

Objective:

The increase in migration into EU member countries in 2015, and the socio-political challenges associated with it, have led the EU to set out a strategy to tackle root causes of irregular migration in the countries of origin. Crop failure caused by climate change, in particular, is forecast to be a major driver of international migration in the coming decades. In this project, we will integrate state-of-the-art climate, crop, economic and migration models in order to predict potential migration flows, driven by climate-change-related crop failure, from African and Middle Eastern countries into EU member states until the year 2050. We go on identify optimal adaptation strategies in countries at risk, which can stabilise agricultural production and help minimise future migration pressures. By using multi-model projections, and performing in-depth model uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, we will generate robust projections driven by the best data available, and ensure a transparent assessment of uncertainties. Our results will inform evidence-based action by EU policy makers aimed at minimising future large-scale forced migration driven by climate change.
This highly interdisciplinary project will give the Experienced Researcher the opportunity to complement his background in agro-environmental modelling, by developing expertise in the socio-economic dimensions of global food production under climate change. Home to world-leading experts of all disciplines relevant to the project, and exceptionally well connected with national and international governmental and non-governmental bodies, both the Host Institution (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and the Secondment Host Institution (International Organization for Migration) will provide a unique environment for ensuring the highest-quality research and training during the fellowship, as well as the effective communication of results to EU policy makers and the wider public.