The UN special envoy, Agnes Kalibata, has warned that food scarcity may be even worse compared to last year mainly due to rising food prices caused by the global pandemic.
According to Kalibata, the most vulnerable are the poorest societies because they have the greatest difficulty sourcing enough nutritious food as its cost is beyond their financial means.
“Food systems have contracted because of COVID-19. Food has become more expensive and, in some places, out of reach for people. Food is looking more challenging this year than last year,” she said.
The rise in food prices stems mainly from the lockdowns that significantly limited the activities of food markets as well as hampering the work of farmers. An additional factor that has affected food prices is global warming which has translated into an increase in food prices, particularly in Africa which has suffered because of floods and droughts that have destroyed harvests. It is predicted that this year may be especially difficult in terms of extreme weather with droughts expected in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia that will further disrupt food supplies. Furthermore, many families worldwide have lost their source of income and although last year they relied on savings to buy food, it is very likely that this year they will run out of money and it will therefore become more difficult to ensure sufficient food rations.
In 2020, the data concerning food insecurity was alarming. The World Food Programme estimates that last year about 96 million people were affected by acute food insecurity in 54 countries, in addition to the 137 million who were already struggling in 2019. As a result, at the end of 2020, a total of about 233 million people were impacted by hunger with the World Bank predicting that this number will grow to as many as 330 million within 2021.
The World Bank also pointed out that the current food crisis being experienced by humanity is caused by turmoil in local employment and product markets as many people have lost their jobs and cannot afford to buy sufficient food. However, supply disruptions have also occurred which have reduced the availability of food and contributed to the increase in prices.
The situation is more complex in countries whose economies depend on food imports because factors such as currency deprecation, movement restrictions, lower availability of labor, or the closure of “wet markets” have significantly impacted food prices. Unfortunately, there are also other factors that have contributed to this surge including climate change, conflicts, zoonotic diseases, and economic shocks.
The World Bank’s data indicates that while between 1982 and 2006 in sub-Saharan Africa the frequency of climate shocks to per capita food production was once every 12.5 years this rose to once every 2.5 years between 2007 and 2016. Thus, climate changes are making it more difficult to produce enough food year by year. The number of conflicts worldwide has also significantly increased since 2010, hence in many places that experience hostilities the supply chains or appropriate infrastructure to produce and transport food have been disrupted.
The Famine Action Mechanism, a global partnership, has identified 12 main hotspots that are particularly vulnerable to acute food insecurity this year. They are Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, DRC, Ethiopia, Haiti, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Yemen, and Zimbabwe.
