Aviation safety - Uncertainty quantification for safety and risk management

Call updates

Sep 19, 2023 12:08:00 PM

The call for proposals HORIZON-CL5-2023-D6-01 closed on 05/09/2023. 133 proposals were submitted to the call. The breakdown per topic is:

HORIZON-CL5-2023-D6-01-11 (RIA): 11 proposals

May 5, 2023 4:07:07 PM

The submission session is now available for: HORIZON-CL5-2023-D6-01-11(HORIZON-RIA)

Aviation safety - Uncertainty quantification for safety and risk management

TOPIC ID: HORIZON-CL5-2023-D6-01-11

Programme: Horizon Europe Framework Programme (HORIZON)
Call: Safe, Resilient Transport and Smart Mobility services for passengers and goods (HORIZON-CL5-2023-D6-01)
Type of action: HORIZON-RIA HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
Type of MGA: HORIZON Action Grant Budget-Based [HORIZON-AG]
Deadline model: single-stage
Planned opening date: 04 May 2023
Deadline date: 05 September 2023 17:00:00 Brussels time

ExpectedOutcome:
Project results should focus to the quantification of uncertainty (UQ) in all aspects of the design, manufacturing and operations for achieving high level of safety and a better management of risks. Project results are expected to contribute to at least three (or more) of the following expected outcomes:

UQ for modelling/simulation of design, manufacturing and integration processes.
UQ for operational aspects.
UQ for virtual certification.
Big data processing and data science for safety intelligence and risk management, including both structured and unstructured (text-based) data.
Development of UQ (as open as possible) mathematical libraries and management Tools (e.g. tolerancing, kriging, higher order reliability methods).
Validation campaigns in challenging test cases.
Scope:
Uncertainties are always present due to limited manufacturing precision and variable operating conditions and life cycle events. Integrating these uncertainties into the design process of aircraft, aircraft engines and systems is a key element to reduce program risk and to ensure safe and economic operation.

Uncertainty is an upper bound between the estimate of aircraft characteristics and performance at a certain stage of its development and characteristics of the aircraft once in service. As such, the full lifecycle of aviation systems should be taken into account, including uncertainties occurring during manufacturing operations. This uncertainty can be the consequence of the quality of the means used during the development phase to estimate these characteristics and an inaccurate knowledge of the actual status of the aircraft, and appropriate tolerancing in the design phase. The planning and design of the current and future aviation system requires an advanced model of the interactive aviation operational system, not just of pilot or aircraft-centric operations.

Evaluation of uncertainties associated to each measurement should be the result of a detailed and justified methodology, fully taking account of the role of human factors or human agents within the aviation socio-technical system. Treatment of uncertainties enables a rigorous management of performance engagements and associated risks assessment. Traditional safety margin approaches will be replaced by engineering procedures based on sound data analysis using both mathematical modelling and knowledge engineering appropriate to both structured and unstructured (text-based) data.

As appropriate, safety risk assessment should be addressed in cooperation with EASA, notably with regard to big data processing on safety intelligence.

Specific Topic Conditions:
Activities are expected to achieve TRL 3-5 by the end of the project – see General Annex B.