Consultancy: production of a thematic study
Population Projections
2017 Mozambique Population and Housing Census

Type of contract: consultancy

Hiring organization: ICON-INSTITUT Public Sector GmbH

Duty station: remote – no travel involved

Closing date: 16/01/2022 

1. Background

As part of UNFPA Country Programme 2017-2020 (Output 13 “Improved availability, analysis and use of quality data“), UNFPA assisted the government of Mozambique in carrying out the 4th Population Census in 2017, through the establishment of a trust fund. The project document of the Trust Fund (TF) 2016-2021 set the following outputs:

• Strengthening human and institutional resources, ensuring quality collection and data analysis;
• Increasing the capabilities of national agencies to plan, prepare and generate quality population census data; and
• Strengthening communication, confidence building and data culture promoting an inclusive census. These will lead to a better environment for collection, analysis and dissemination of population data and for evidence-based decision-making.

The 2017 Population and Housing Census represents the single largest source of population data collected in Mozambique since 2007, providing the state, public bodies and the private sector a full and detailed profile of the population and households down to the smallest geographical unit. It also provides the master sample frame for data collection during inter-census periods and will be central to setting and measuring targets developed as part of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Implementation of the project is done in cooperation with an Implementation Partner, The National Statistics Institute (INE). The IV Census was successfully enumerated in 2017 with technical and financial assistance of UNFPA as well as other international partners. The official results, released in April 2019, showed a population of 27.9 million, which represents an increase of 35% compared with the previous census. Tabulation of results at sub-national and enumeration area levels was completed and disseminated in December 2019.

UNFPA continues to assist INE to implement the post enumeration activities of the Census, as well as coordinate the multi-donor Trust Fund (Canada, Italy, Sweden, Norway, and DFID) and including the World Bank.

An integral part of the project is to produce Thematic Studies based on the results of the Census, as part of the dissemination of the results of the Census. A total of 17 thematic study areas have been identified. ICON-INSTITUT and the Centre for Political Analyses of the Eduardo Mondlane University of Maputo (CAP) have been contracted by UNFPA to manage the production of 12 of these studies.

2. Purpose of the consultancy

The purpose of this assignment is to produce a thematic study on Population Projections.

The study should provide an in-depth analysis of the data collected, allowing a better understanding of the trends and differences in time, geographical, by age and sex.

In particular, the study will cover the following topics:

• Projections by age and sex, based on explicit hypotheses about fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration at the national and Provincial level;
• Projections by age and sex based on mathematical extrapolation methods (including apportionment, Duchesne’s method and Bayesian approach) at the district and municipal level, calibrated by the Provincial projections made within the previous point;
• Projections at the national and Provincial level and by rural and urban areas of households, school attendance and levels of completed education and labour force participation based on the population projections made, as well as the age and sex specific rates projected in the thematic studies on Education, Labour Force, Households and Housing Conditions.

INE has already prepared a set of official projections at the national, provincial and district levels. The technical report of these projections will be elaborated separately, before the start of the consultancy. It will provide guidance on the base line parameters (base line population by age and sex, fertility, mortality, migration) that need to be respected in all the subsequent/alternative projections. The study to be conducted within this consultancy can, however, formulate alternative projection hypotheses about the future development of population trends in Mozambique. In particular, it should develop functional projections in the areas of housing, education and labour force based on both the official and alternative population trajectories.

The study will be mainly produced by five authors: 3 specialist and 1 reviewer, contracted by ICON-Institut. In addition to these, at least two secondary authors will contribute to the study.

The approval process of the study will involve a revision done by UNFPA and INE, a peer review by experts contracted by ICON-INSTITUT, and a presentation/workshop to relevant stakeholders (not necessarily in this order).

In addition to UNFPA’s support, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) will be closely involved in the development of the study, providing information on the census data in the form of documentation and live consultation.

3. Major Tasks and Responsibilities

The consultants will undertake the following tasks.

Specialists and contributors:

• Liaise with the project Team Leader and INE to obtain the adequate datasets for the study.
• Liaise with relevant stakeholders (including INE) to collect other information required or relevant for the study.
• Liaise with authors of other studies to harmonize methodologies and provide necessary inputs.
• Provide a comprehensive but compact literature review highlighting status of research and knowledge (most up-to-date demographic and statistical methodologies and tools), and policy considerations in the thematic area.
• Give due consideration to past and current government policy frameworks and global development goals.
• Identify, outline, estimate and analyse key indicators in the thematic areas, including trends analysis based on the comparison with previous Censuses (1997, 2007).
• Analyse the policy implications of the findings.
• Describe clearly the methods and procedures used, highlighting key data quality issues.
• Provide forecasts (projections) of key indicators.
• Compare the indicators with those emerging from other data sources, where these exist, and explain any potential discrepancies.
• Make sure that all tables and figures are presented in the agreed-upon format.
• Provide relevant recommendations for the planning of the 2027 Census.
• Present key findings to partners, and incorporate relevant feedback.
• Provide adequate citations of all resources and published material used in the thematic report, according to internationally accepted conventions. The consultants are encouraged to use peer-reviewed material and published policy documents.

Reviewer:

• Contribute to coordination with authors and reviewers of other studies to harmonize methodologies and provide necessary inputs.
• Identify any major lacunae in the analysis, i.e., major research questions that were omitted and that lend themselves to analysis based on census data;
• Make sure that the studies’ focus remains within its assigned substantive area and does not stray into long theoretical discourses or analyses of issues that are not directly relevant to the assigned research theme;
• Verify the internal consistency of the study, i.e., make sure that all the issues which were supposed to be addressed were actually followed up on;
• Verify compliance with the guidelines on study format, as well of tables and figures;
• Identify any significant errors in reasoning or the application of methodologies;
• Verify the consistency of any tables or research results produced by the study. This does not mean that the analysis has to be checked in its entirety, but evident inconsistencies in tables or counter-intuitive or inconsistent research findings should be pointed out;
• Make sure that all the relevant comparisons with alternative data have been carried out;
• Make sure that any research results that diverge from previous findings in the literature have been adequately explained;
• Verify if the relevant literature references have been included;
• Verify the appropriateness of the substantive interpretations and policy recommendations in the light of the actual research results obtained.

The role of the reviewer is to provide independent quality assurance services to the study. As such, it is preferred if the reviewer were not directly involved in the production of the study but rather provide inputs at crucial delivery points (the research plan, draft study report, and peer review).

4. Key deliverables

In the first three weeks after signature of the contract, the consultants are required to deliver a research plan outlining the development process of the study (e.g., situational analysis, evidence review, statistical analysis, drafting and revision). The initial research plan will be presented and discussed with UNFPA, INE, and other contributing partners.

After four weeks, the consultancy team for this study is expected to deliver a draft study and present it to a Steering Committee composed of representatives of the involved stakeholders (in this case, UNFPA and INE).

A period of four additional weeks is foreseen for the peer review, at the end of which the study will be considered approved.

The draft study will be developed in accordance with the following predefined structure:

1. Executive summary (summary report). A summary of maximum 2,000 words focusing on key results and policy implications/recommendations;
2. A general discussion of the subject matter which should include the main research questions relevant to the theme. This discussion should not be limited to the questions that can be answered with census data, but should reflect the main policy issues and theoretical debates regarding the subject. A brief discussion of the relevant research literature should be included, particularly regarding the research questions that will be selected in section 3;
3. Data availability. A discussion of the data sources available to address the questions identified in section 1. These data should be used later in the study (section 7) in order to compare and contextualize the results obtained with census data. This section should also contain a brief discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using census data for analysing the research questions. For the most part, the quality of the census data regarding the topic at hand should already have been assessed in monograph A, but a brief recapitulation of the results should be included here.
4. A section on the selection of the research questions that will be addressed, the way they will be approached and how the concepts will be operationalized. For example, while monetary poverty cannot be assessed with census data, it may be possible to assess non-monetary poverty through the methodology developed by UNDP. If any particular methodology of this kind is used, it should be explained here;
5. Basic tables relevant to the issues being addressed. The extent to which the analysis can be represented in the form of simple tables varies by subject. In some cases, the entire analysis can be represented in table format, whereas in other cases individual observations need to be processed or tables will need further analysis. However, given that tables are the most easily understood and that some users will only look at this part of the analysis, as much information as possible should be made available here in a format that is understandable to readers that have not necessarily read the preceding sections. An effort will be made to disaggregate the tables by age and sex, as much as possible, although there will be tables where other disaggregation criteria take priority. The use of purely descriptive tables not connected to the central research questions is to be discouraged, unless they provide essential administrative data that were somehow omitted in the previous standard tabulations. Any table not directly relevant to the study can be included in the statistical annex.

On the other hand, the study should include at least two or three maps providing a geographical representation of the key indicators. The maps can be developed in collaboration with INE technicians.

6. Further analysis. Advanced statistical or demographic analyses beyond tables. These can be either analyses that require individual observations (e.g., regressions) or advanced analyses based on the tables contained in section 5 (e.g., indirect estimation methods).
7. Interpretation of the results obtained in sections 4 and 5. Those readers that want to skip 6) should still be able to understand the results in this section. Therefore, the explanations provided cannot depend on section 6 and care must be taken to present them in easily understood terms, without the use of excessive demographic or statistical jargon. Here it is also necessary to confront the results of the analyses with those obtained from other studies, using alternative data sources, as suggested in section 3.
8. Policy implications of the analysis carried out in section 7.
9. Literature references
10. Annexes, including any element that is not directly relevant for the central questions of the study but still useful to detail the discussion. Any relevant table that is not included in the report can be included in a statistical annex.

In addition to the study itself, the consultants are required to participate in its peer-review and provide a presentation of the study highlights.

5. Location and duration

The consultancy will be undertaken for a maximum of 124 working days, distributed as follows:

• 30 working days for each of the three specialists (for a total 90 days);
• 8 working days for each of the three secondary authors (for a total of 24 days);
• 10 working days for the reviewer.

The consultants will work in close collaboration with ICON-INSTITUT and the authors of other studies to ensure complementarity of deliverables. The consultants will also have regular virtual meetings with UNFPA, INE and potentially other key stakeholders to monitor and report on the study production process.

Location: remote work

Planned start date: 17/01/2022

Deadline for completion of the study: 31/03/2021 (including review)

Duration: 11 weeks

6. Qualifications and experience

Required Educational Background: PhD plus 2 years or Masters plus 10 years in Demography (Analytical)

Required area of Experience:

• Proven and demonstrable experience (at least 10 years) in research and analysis of data in the field of population and other social sciences;
• Proven experience in research coordination;
• Good analytical and reporting skills, especially census data analysis and/or large-scale (national) research, and
• Experience with software domain/statistical and demographic packages.

Language Requirement: Fluency in English and ability to work in Portuguese

7. How to apply

Applicants with the required qualifications and experience should submit a written letter of application and a copy of curriculum vitae (CV) by email to ICON-INSTITUT, indicating the preferred position (specialist or reviewer) and quoting “Population Projections” in the object of the email.

Attention: Dr. Carlos Bire Caixote, Responsavel Recursos Humanos

Email: census_studies_mozambique@icon-institute.de

Note: Only those candidates in who meet all qualifications and experience will be contacted for further consideration.