While the global population is expected to significantly grow in number, some countries will still witness a decrease in population by 2050. There are several reasons for this, the foremost of which are fertility rates and high levels of emigration.
It may be hard to believe, but the global population has grown by an astonishing 700% in just two hundred years – from around one billion people in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2024.
Based on the projections noted in the latest report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), “2024 Revision of World Population Prospects”, over the next five to six decades the world’s population will continue to increase.
In terms of global population decline, the UN predicts that:
- In 2030, the number of people over 80 will reach 265 million, surpassing the number of babies below the age of one.
- In 2070, the world will be home to 2.2 billion people aged 65 or over, a figure that is expected to exceed the number of young people under the age of 18.
- The projected population is expected to reach a peak of around 10.3 billion between 2080 and 2090.
- However, at the end of the century, the world’s population is expected to decline with some countries registering drastic decreases compared to others.
According to other research conducted by experts at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, one in two newborns in the world in 2100 will be in countries located in sub-Saharan Africa.
Which continent will have the fastest population growth rate?
Based on UN estimates, the population of Africa is predicted to increase by 79% and reach 2.2 billion by 2054.
This growth will be driven mostly by sub-Saharan African nations. By 2100, their overall population is expected to hit 3.3 billion (more than one-fifth of the growth in the world), with nine nations, including Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Angola, anticipated to double their population between 2024 and 2054.
Now let’s break down the countries that registered the most significant decrease in population in 2024.
Which countries had the fastest population decline rate in 2024 compared to 2023?
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Source: Statista.com
In 2024, a sharp population decline was registered in the Cook Islands with a 2.24% decrease compared to the previous year, thus topping the list of countries with the fastest shrinking population.
The majority of the nations included on this list are island nations from which numerous residents emigrate to neighboring wealthy countries like Australia and the United States and countries in Eastern Europe, which is a region that experiences low birth rates and high emigration rates.
Now let’s look at which countries are projected to register the most dramatic decrease in population over the next three decades.
The countries that are likely to register a decline in population size are mainly located in or near Eastern Europe, except for Japan and Cuba. From 2020 to 2050, the highest drop in population, 22.5%, will be recorded in Bulgaria. Lithuania follows with a 22.1% projected decline for the same period and Latvia ranks third with 21.6%.
Which countries will have the fastest declining population between 2020 and 2050?
Source: Visual Capitalist
There are several reasons why Eastern European countries lead the list of countries with the quickest decline in population. Firstly, birth rates dropped dramatically in these countries after the USSR collapsed. While in 1988, on average, a woman had 2.1 children, in 1998, this number fell to 1.2. Secondly, emigration has played a significant role. Due to the European Union’s border expansion between 2004 and 2007, Eastern European countries had recorded emigration equal to 6.3 million people by 2016.
The only nations outside Eastern Europe with low birth rates are Japan and Cuba. In Japan, the birth rate has been falling since 1971, when it was 2.2, to 1.2 in 2023.
Overall, 727,277 babies were born in 2023 in Japan, which is a decrease of 43,482 from the year before while, at the same time, 1,575,936 people passed away. The typical unwillingness of Japanese people to have children outside marriage and the country’s tendency toward late marriages or not marrying at all are cultural factors that pose significant obstacles to increasing the birth rate.
In Cuba, the birth rate is the lowest among Latin American countries. For instance, in Guatemala and Paraguay, the fertility rate, measured by births per woman, was equal to 2.4 in 2022, in Mexico, it was 1.8, while in Cuba, the fertility rate was equal to 1.4.
Cuba also has a low level of immigration. The International Organization for Migration states only 0.1% of the population in Cuba are migrants.
As for the population growth rate on a global level, this has slowed down over time, reaching its slowest rate, 1%, in 2020 compared to 1950. However, estimates show that, despite this deceleration, the global population could increase to about 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2080. Currently, China leads the list of the most populous countries, but India is expected to exceed China in 2023.
Changes in population rankings: Top 15 countries in 1950 and 2100
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Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024
As can be seen from the graph, two Asian countries will have topped the list from 1950 up to 2100. India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world in 2022 and will remain in this position at least until 2100, with China second and Pakistan third.
- Five of the 15 countries with the largest populations in 1950 were in Europe.
- Russia is the only nation on the European continent that remains in the top 15 in 2025.
- By the end of the century, there will be no European nation listed among the top 15 most populous countries, while seven African nations will appear on the list.
When did the global population hit eight billion people?
It seems as though it was only yesterday but, in fact, several years have already passed since November 15, 2022 when human development reached the 8 billion milestone, according to the United Nations.
Did you know that it took 12 years for Earth’s population to grow from seven to eight billion?
Since the global population growth rate is slowing down, the next milestone of 9 billion will be reached in around 15 years (i.e., 2037), according to estimates.
However, some nations continue to have high fertility rates, and most of these have some of the lowest per capita incomes.
Textbox: The world’s poorest nations, most of which are found in sub-Saharan Africa, have seen an increase in population growth throughout time and are likely to continue to do so.
How many people will live on Earth in 2100?
Estimates show that the possibility of the world’s population reaching its peak this century is 80%.
In 2100, both China and India will still top the list of the world’s most populous nations.
According to projections, immigration will be the primary factor driving population increase in 52 countries and regions until 2054 and in 62 countries and regions until the end of the century.
What impacts population growth?
Even though the population is expected to grow for at least the next five decades, the growth rate is already rapidly slowing down which can be explained by several reasons:
1️⃣ Decreasing fertility rates
Low fertility rate is one of the causes impacting population growth. With 2.25 live births per woman, the worldwide fertility rate is one child lower than it was a generation ago, as reported by the World Population Prospects. It is predicted that the world fertility rate will drop to 2.1 by the late 2040s.
Since the 1960s, the fertility rate around the world has decreased by more than half, from over 5 children per woman to 3.31 in 1990 to 2.25 today.
Why do women have fewer children?
According to one perspective, women have greater autonomy , and fertility decreases as more women engage in higher education and employment.
- Having access to better education means women have more control over their relationships, increased knowledge of contraception, and more say in family planning.
- An increasing number of women have chosen to postpone having children to continue their careers.
- Having children also compromises the opportunity to earn more when women’s incomes grow in comparison to those of their male spouses.
2️⃣ Increasing life expectancy at birth and decreased mortality rates
In the future, many countries will register a dramatic increase in the number of elderly people.
According to the latest data from the World Health Organization, by 2030, the world will have 1.4 billion people aged over 60, which is around 300 million more compared to 2023.
In 2024, the average life expectancy at birth worldwide was 73.3 years, which is 8.4 years more compared to 1995, and by 2054, this figure is expected to increase to 77.2 years.
Textbox: The aging population is the result of improvements in health, economic, and social progress, and low mortality rates, especially among the elderly.
3️⃣ International migration
By 2054, several countries are expected to register population growth due to immigration.
In 2024, there were 304 million international migrants globally, a population that has increased by twofold since 1990, according to the UN.
The ratio of foreign migrants to the overall population by destination region in 2024
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Source: UNDESA
What is the reason behind the slowdown in population growth?
Even though the population is expected to grow for at least the next five decades, the growth rate is already rapidly slowing down. The main cause lies in the reduction in fertility rates. Since the 1960s the fertility rate around the world has decreased by more than half, from over 5 children per woman to 2.5 to 3.31 in 1990.
What are the drivers of the great fertility slump?
According to one perspective, women have greater autonomy and fertility decreases as more women engage in higher education and employment.
Having access to better education means women have more control over their relationships, increased knowledge of contraception, and more say in family planning.
An increasing number of women have chosen to postpone having children to continue their careers. Having children also compromises the opportunity to earn more when women’s incomes grow in comparison to those of their male spouses.
Final word
Over the last couple of centuries, the global population has seen a drastic increase, but things are about to change. While the number of people on Earth will continue to increase over the next few decades, some countries will see a continual decrease in the number of their citizens. And with fertility rates dropping globally, we will soon witness the number of older people alive exceeding the number of children.
