UNEP report charts path to expand cooling access without spiking emissions

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)‘s Global Cooling Watch 2025 report, launched at COP30, warns that global cooling capacity could more than triple by 2050, nearly doubling cooling-related emissions under business-as-usual and straining grids during peak power demand, the UN Environment Programme stated. The report sets out a Sustainable Cooling Pathway that could deliver a 64% reduction in emissions by 2050, and 97% with electricity decarbonization, while expanding lifesaving cooling to those most at risk. The economic case is compelling—an estimated $17 trillion in cumulative energy savings and up to $26 trillion in avoided grid investments by 2050.

More than 1 billion people already lack access to adequate cooling, and without action, this number could triple by 2050, contributing to hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths each year. Most vulnerable are low-income and high-risk groups, including women, the elderly, and people living in poorly built housing with limited green space, outdoor workers, and smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on cold storage. Cooling demand is set to surge, with global cooling capacity projected to more than triple from 22 TW in 2022 to 68 TW by 2050.

The Sustainable Cooling Pathway combines passive design, low-energy and hybrid options—fans, evaporative coolers, hybrid fan-AC systems, and off-grid appliances—rapid uptake of high-efficiency equipment, and an accelerated HFC phase-down. This would reduce emissions to 64 percent below the levels expected in 2050. About two-thirds of the mitigation comes from passive and low-energy cooling. Passive cooling measures could sustainably expand access to cooling for the 3 billion people who will need it and not otherwise have it by 2050, while delivering on emissions cuts.

Twenty-nine countries now have explicit cooling-emissions targets, and 134 reference cooling in their climate plans. However, only 54 countries have policies in place that address the core pillars of the Sustainable Cooling Pathway—passive measures, minimum energy performance standards and rapid refrigerants phase-down—with implementation especially thin in Africa and the Asia-Pacific. Critically, very few countries mandate passive cooling in building codes, highlighting the need to prioritize cooling in codes and provide clear guidance for developers.

Seventy-two countries have committed to the Global Cooling Pledge, launched at COP28 by the UNEP-led Cool Coalition and the COP28 Presidency. The pledge commits countries to cut cooling-related emissions by 68 percent by 2050, as compared to 2022 baselines, while expanding access to sustainable cooling. Launched at COP30 by the COP30 Presidency and UNEP-led Cool Coalition, “Beat the Heat” is a collective effort to localize the Global Cooling Pledge, equipping cities and sub-national actors with knowledge and technical resources to assess heat vulnerability and embed cooling projects in urban development.