Aging populations driven by falling birth rates and longer lifespans will keep cranking up fiscal pressure on pension systems just as governments wrestle with high debt and competing budget demands, a new Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) “Pensions at a Glance 2025” report warns. The number of people aged 65 and older per 100 working-age adults will jump from 33 today to 52 by 2050 across OECD countries—more than double the ratio from 2000. Korea faces the sharpest rise, with an increase of nearly 50 points, while Greece, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, and Spain will see jumps of over 25 points.
The working-age population is expected to shrink by 13 percent over the next four decades, dragging GDP per capita down by 14 percent by 2060. That squeeze will hit revenues while spending on age-related programs climbs. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said countries need to raise effective retirement ages and create better opportunities for older workers to keep pension systems financially sustainable and support economic growth. “As we live longer, and live longer healthier, we need to work longer,” Cormann noted.
Ten countries—including Estonia, Greece, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Spain—will see their working-age populations drop by more than 30 percent over the next 40 years. The average normal retirement age in OECD countries will climb from 64.7 for men and 63.9 for women retiring in 2024 to 66.4 and 65.9 respectively for those starting careers this year. Future retirement ages range from 62 in Colombia, Luxembourg, and Slovenia to 70 or more in Denmark, Estonia, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden.
Full-career average-wage workers entering the labor market now can expect net pensions equal to 63 percent of net wages. That figure dips below 40 percent in Estonia, Ireland, Korea, and Lithuania, though workers earning half the average wage fare better at 76 percent. The report also highlights a stubborn gender pension gap—women receive monthly pensions 23 percent lower than men’s on average, down from 28 percent in 2007 but still significant.
Lifetime earnings differences between men and women—caused by gaps in employment, hours worked, and hourly wages—average 35 percent across OECD countries and drive most of the pension gap. Unequal sharing of unpaid work adds to the problem. The OECD says countries need a comprehensive strategy covering labor markets, family policy, and pension rules to close the gap. Priorities include affordable childcare, fewer tax and benefit disincentives to work, encouraging women to study technical fields, ensuring equal access to leadership roles, and eliminating earlier pension access for women where it exists. Survivor pensions also matter—they reduce the gender pension gap by about one-third on average, with women making up 88 percent of recipients.
