Ukraine’s recovery bill will reach almost $588 billion over the next decade – close to three times the country’s projected 2025 GDP – as Russia’s full-scale invasion continues to batter homes, energy systems and other key sectors, according to a new joint damage assessment. The updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5), issued by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations (UN), comes as the war enters its fifth year and puts direct physical damage at more than $195 billion since February 2022.
The report finds that transport, energy and housing account for the largest share of reconstruction needs, with estimated costs of over $96 billion, nearly $91 billion and almost $90 billion respectively. Commerce and industry will require around $63 billion, while agricultural recovery needs top $55 billion. Clearing explosives and debris alone is expected to cost nearly $28 billion, despite progress in surveying and demining. Damage remains heavily concentrated in frontline regions and major cities, where attacks on railways, ports, power plants and residential areas have intensified.
Partners stress that private investment will be critical to rebuilding Ukraine’s economy, alongside public and concessional finance. Unlocking that capital will depend on reforms to improve the business climate, expand access to finance, tackle labour shortages and align production with European Union green and digital standards. EU officials have underlined that reconstruction support is closely tied to Ukraine’s path toward EU membership.
UN officials and humanitarian leaders are also urging a people-centred recovery. They highlight refugee returns, veteran reintegration and women’s participation in the labour force as central to long-term growth, not just bricks-and-mortar reconstruction. Ukrainian authorities, backed by development partners, have already channelled more than $15 billion into housing repair funds, demining and economic support programmes, and estimate that at least $20 billion in needs have been met so far through urgent repairs and early recovery in housing, energy, education and transport.
Despite relentless attacks on energy infrastructure and homes, Ukrainian leaders say communities and businesses continue to adapt and rebuild. They argue that sustained international support – coupled with domestic resilience and reform – will determine how quickly the country can move from emergency response to a durable, inclusive recovery over the next decade.
