The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned on April 13, 2026, that a prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz could produce a dangerous spike in food price inflation later this year, with cascading effects comparable to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, according to a press release issued by FAO. The warning came from FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero and David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, speaking in a podcast published Monday. Ships carrying critical agricultural inputs must start moving through the strait as soon as possible, the two officials stressed.
Exports of between 20 and 45 percent of key agrifood inputs rely on sea passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The latest FAO Food Price Index, covering March, remained relatively stable due to ample supplies of most food commodities, especially cereals. However, pressure is rising in April and will intensify in May, as farmers face decisions on whether to switch planting choices based on fertilizer availability. Fertilizer and energy markets are inelastic, meaning prices can rise much more than changes in traded volume imply. The risks today are notably greater than in 2022, and conditions exist for a “perfect storm” if the situation is also affected by a strong El Niño rivaling or exceeding the pandemic crisis.
FAO urged all countries to closely examine biofuel mandates and, above all, to avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilizers. If the Strait of Hormuz standoff is not quickly resolved, anticipatory actions should be considered, including asking multilateral institutions to provide financing to countries at risk of losing access to basic fertilizer inputs. The International Monetary Fund’s balance of payment facilities and the Food Shock Window could be used as an input-financing facility. This would allow countries that need fertilizers today to obtain them quickly without triggering distorting subsidy competitions, Torero said. FAO has already developed a crop calendar-based prioritization of countries based on when and how much fertilizer they need.
“We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe,” said Laborde. “The difference depends on the actions we take.”
Torero cautioned that lower crop yields and higher commodity prices would likely force countries to implement policies to lower domestic food prices. This, in turn, could trigger higher interest rates and potential slower economic growth around the world. Unlike natural disasters or climate stressors such as El Niño, the Strait of Hormuz blockade “is something governments can resolve and have to resolve,” Torero said.
Most farmers already face thin margins, and if they are bankrupted the world food supply situation will be worse for longer. Trade and export restrictions have exacerbated food price spikes in past crises, as efforts to insulate domestic markets from world markets worsened global conditions.”The clock is ticking,” Torero said, with crop calendars putting poorer countries most at risk of scarce and costly fertilizer and energy inputs.
“The risks are very clear,” he added. “If we don’t accelerate…, the risks will exacerbate.”
