International tourist arrivals in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries rose by an estimated 3.4% in 2025 to reach a record 847 million, building on 8.1% growth in 2024, according to a press release from the OECD. The findings are set out in the new OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 report, released on 1 July 2026. It warns that geopolitical tensions, shifting traveller behaviour, and extreme weather-related events continue to shape the tourism landscape. Destinations will need to strengthen their ability to anticipate and adapt to uncertainty. The report frames adaptation as essential for sustaining tourism’s growth trajectory.
The report notes that the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global travel flows and increased costs, weighing on traveller confidence. Countries in the region are most affected, along with destinations reliant on the Gulf for air connectivity. These effects are likely to persist in the near term. Concerns about safety, affordability and cancellations may influence travel decisions. Travelers are increasingly favoring more familiar and affordable destinations, shorter stays and lower-cost options.
Four countries recorded double-digit growth in 2025 to reach record levels of inbound arrivals. Finland led with a 16.5% increase, followed by Japan at 15.8%, Korea at 15.7% and Norway at 12.5%. This builds on a strong recovery in 2024 in Korea and Japan, which rose 48.4% and 47.1% respectively, aided by expanded connectivity and a weak yen. In a recent OECD survey, one third of OECD countries expect tourism performance to exceed 2025 levels by the end of this year. Many are projected to break new records.
Meanwhile, international tourist arrivals fell in four countries in 2025 and have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels: Canada was down 0.6%, Germany down 0.8%, Ireland down 2.8% and the United States down 5.5%. Inbound tourism in Israel has also been significantly impacted by conflicts in the Middle East, with arrivals down 70.8% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“Tourism continues to grow, generating business opportunities, jobs and tax revenues across the OECD,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “Governments and businesses need to work together to sustain this growth and build resilience.”
He added that this means applying the lessons of the pandemic and the conflict in the Middle East to strengthen crisis preparedness, and managing tourism and visitor flows to ensure the sector delivers lasting benefits.
As airlines, tour operators and other tourism providers adjust their programmes for 2027 and beyond, destinations will need to anticipate changing travel patterns. Strategies must adapt to evolving geopolitical, economic and weather-related risks. The picture varies significantly across OECD countries, underscoring the uneven nature of the recovery. Working with over 100 countries, the OECD is a global policy forum that promotes policies to preserve individual liberty and improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world. The report highlights that resilience and adaptability will be central to sustaining tourism’s contribution to jobs and revenue.
