Strengthening El Niño to push 49 million more people into acute hunger
Nearly 50 million more people in highly vulnerable communities globally are set to be pushed into acute hunger because of the strengthening El Niño weather phenomenon, according to a press release issued on 5 August 2026 by the UN World Food Programme (WFP). The agency and its partners are scaling up efforts across eight countries to shield communities already contending with poverty, conflict, joblessness, and repeated climate extremes. Priorities include preparing for floods, droughts, and storms before they hit. WFP defines acute hunger as the condition of people unable to meet their daily food needs. The warning underscores mounting concern over the compounding effects of climate shocks on global food security.
WFP recalled that the 2015-2016 El Niño affected the food security of 60 to 100 million people. Early projections indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year. The agency analyzed 45 countries already considered food insecure, where El Niño will significantly influence rainfall patterns, temperatures, floods, and droughts. It expects the total number of acutely food-insecure people to rise from 225 million to 274 million, an increase of approximately 22 per cent. Central America and southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions.
According to WFP findings, Latin America and the Caribbean could see one of the sharpest rises in food insecurity, with more than 16 million people affected, and Central America is projected to have the largest proportional increase at 83.1 per cent. In East and Southern Africa, more than 18 million people could see their food security deteriorate, representing a 26 per cent increase. Southern African countries are particularly exposed because many households depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. Asia and the Pacific could see an estimated 8.2 million additional people facing acute food insecurity. West and Central Africa are also at risk, with food insecurity projected to increase by 12 per cent, affecting nearly six million additional people.
“El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” said Carl Skau, WFP’s Acting Executive Director. “The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods.”
El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, though effects will be felt throughout 2027 owing to impacts on future harvests. WFP warned that drought, flooding, and extreme temperatures are already putting communities at risk. Working closely with FAO, OCHA, and other partners, WFP has active prevention plans in more than 50 countries.
Since May, WFP has triggered anticipatory action plans in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala, and El Salvador, providing more than $14 million in lifesaving responses to support half a million people. These efforts include scaling pre-arranged financing mechanisms such as disaster risk insurance, credit, and digital payments to make more money available at lower cost. Experiences from prior El Niño events have shown that $1 invested in anticipatory programs can save between $3 and $7 in avoided losses and response costs. WFP and FAO have already appealed for increased support to help at-risk communities prepare before emergencies escalate. The agency emphasized that acting early can help protect lives, livelihoods, and food security.