Unlocking commercial capital for renewables

Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) has published new analysis of renewable energy finance flows across 23 economies, arguing that the central challenge for the energy transition is unlocking private investment rather than mobilizing more public money, according to a press release dated 02 Sep 2026. The study covers markets across Africa, Latin America and Asia, using cumulative commitments from 2017 to 2021 drawn from IJGlobal and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) sources. It frames the finding against a global backdrop in which clean energy investment is on track to reach about USD 2.2 trillion in 2026, nearly double what flows to fossil fuels. Yet emerging and developing economies outside China capture less than 30% of total energy investment and only 20% of power sector investment. The thesis is direct: finance is not scarce, but it is not reaching many of the countries that need it most.

The wider context underlines the divide. Emerging and developing economies outside China are home to two-thirds of the world’s population but attract a shrinking share of clean energy investment. Clean energy investment is rising about 7% a year in advanced economies and China, but only 4% across other emerging markets. The 23-country sample was selected to keep coverage balanced across income groups and includes both mature and frontier renewable markets. That design allows a comparison of how investment risk profiles shape access to commercial finance.

The data reveals a sharp split. Eleven countries finance roughly three quarters or more of their renewable investment through commercial capital, with Japan and the Republic of Korea relying on it entirely. Another 11 finance less than 20% commercially, while Bolivia, Botswana, Nicaragua, Niger and Sudan attracted no commercial capital at all over the period. Kenya, at 36%, is the only country in between. Concentration is stark: 88% of all commercial capital in the sample went to just five markets — India, Chile, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Brazil — with the top three alone taking more than 60%.

Scale differences are equally wide. Botswana attracted USD 42 million in renewable energy investment over five years, while India attracted nearly USD 35 billion, a difference of more than 800-fold. Wind draws the highest commercial share, followed by solar and then hydropower, though commercial investment concentrates in the same few markets across all three technologies. Regional patterns show how development finance fills the gap: for every dollar of commercial capital committed, Sub-Saharan Africa drew around 59 cents of development finance, Latin America just 6 cents, and East Asia none at all. As the analysis states, “No country has reached the top of the investment range while still relying mainly on development finance to get there.”

SEforALL argues that the task is to crowd private investment into the markets commercial capital has so far skipped, particularly the 11 countries financing less than a fifth of their renewables commercially. For development finance institutions and investors, the opportunity lies in deploying catalytic capital to unlock private money that would not otherwise flow. Renewable commercial finance follows conditions that make revenue and returns predictable, so building those conditions where they are missing is the priority. The blog is the first in a series that will explore financial development, policy incentives, political commitment, regulatory frameworks, infrastructure and the broader business environment. Together, the posts aim to explain why private capital flows to some markets and not others.