El Niño development poised to approach strongest on record

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific are rising steadily and are expected to peak around November-December 2026, likely producing a super El Niño event that may well become the strongest in historical records, according to a press release published on 18 August 2026 by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Since the start of the summer, China’s climate patterns have shown the classic fingerprints of a developing El Niño. Two major rain belts have formed in the east, both north and south, generating widespread and intense rainfall. Active and powerful typhoons are producing prolonged wind and rain impacts. Compounding hazards are becoming increasingly evident across the affected regions.

The equatorial central-eastern Pacific entered an El Niño state in May 2026. Since that transition, sea surface temperatures have been climbing rapidly. The monitoring information was released by the CMA. The developments are being tracked as part of ongoing climate surveillance activities. The current phase marks an important stage in the event’s evolution.

The El Niño index in the monitoring region reached 2.09°C in July. That figure represented a rise of 0.49°C from June. The index then surged further to 2.64°C in the first half of August. These readings indicate an exceptionally fast warming pace. The rapid acceleration underscores the trajectory toward a potentially record-setting event.

Overlapping heavy rainfall events have led to compounding hazards across eastern China. Two rain belts, positioned in the north and south of the country, have delivered widespread and intense precipitation. Typhoon activity has been described as active and powerful. Wind and rain impacts have been prolonged. These features align with the classic fingerprints of a developing El Niño.

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific are expected to peak around November-December. The projected peak may well become the strongest in historical records. Summer climate responses in China are already becoming evident. Monitoring by the CMA continues to track the event’s progression. The current data points to a rapidly intensifying El Niño with significant regional signatures.