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Add to Preferred SourcesThe Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) warned on September 18, 2026 that El Niño continues to strengthen and could have significant public health impacts across the Americas in the coming months, according to a press release. The alert is based on PAHO’s first regional situation report on the phenomenon, issued from Washington, D.C. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. Drought, food insecurity, dengue, wildfires, and flooding are already affecting several countries in the region. To date, eight countries or territories have issued official emergency declarations or alerts related to threats associated with El Niño.
PAHO reports that more than 5.2 million people across the region are affected, exposed to risk, or experiencing acute food insecurity. The monitoring identified eight countries or territories with active drought or water shortages, six facing wildfires with health impacts or risks, and five reporting damage from heavy rainfall or flooding. Previous El Niño episodes coincided with major public health emergencies, including the reemergence of cholera in the 1990s. Other examples include the Zika and chikungunya epidemics in 2015–2016. Record dengue transmission was also observed in 2023 and 2024.
In Central America, the Dry Corridor is a primary concern, particularly in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. In Guatemala, nearly three million people face critical levels of food insecurity, while Honduras reports between 1.8 and 2.2 million people affected by acute food insecurity. In the Andean region, Colombia faces wildfires, heavy rainfall, and an active dengue outbreak, alongside risks linked to malaria and yellow fever. Peru has recorded at least 70 deaths between December 2025 and August 2026 from heavy rains, flooding, and landslides, affecting more than 600 health facilities. In Brazil, 630 municipalities have recorded fine particulate matter levels above World Health Organization (WHO) guideline levels.
“El Niño is not just a climate phenomenon. It can affect people’s health in many ways, from food insecurity and vector-borne and water-borne diseases to disruptions in health services,” said Dr. Ciro Ugarte, Director of PAHO’s Department of Health Emergencies.
He added that “with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event, this is a risk countries should take seriously and prepare for now.” In the Caribbean, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and Trinidad and Tobago are reporting drought conditions and water scarcity risks. Countries in the Southern Cone are maintaining preparedness measures for increased rainfall and flooding. The report also warns that health facilities remain vulnerable to infrastructure damage and supply chain interruptions.
PAHO is supporting preparedness and response efforts across the region to strengthen the resilience of health services and improve disease surveillance. Additional initiatives aim to enhance water security and support continuity of care for vulnerable communities. The Organization is urging countries to reinforce surveillance systems and early warning mechanisms. It also calls for ensuring access to safe water, vaccination, medicines, and health care for the most vulnerable populations. PAHO further recommends the review and updating of hospital and health network contingency plans ahead of what could become one of the strongest El Niño events in recent years.