Middle East escalation could push 11.7 million more women and girls into food insecurity by end-2026

An additional 11.7 million women and girls could face food insecurity by the end of 2026 as the escalation in the Middle East and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz drive up food prices and strain household resources, according to a new UN Women analysis. The report, titled “Food security risks of the Middle East escalation for women and girls,” finds that women and girls account for 53 per cent of the projected 22 million additional people who could face food insecurity across 28 countries analyzed. This is in addition to an estimated 208 million women and girls who were already food insecure or undernourished in these countries. The figures are scenario-based estimates rather than forecasts. The findings were released from Geneva.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are driving up energy, fertilizer, and transport costs, which in turn push up food prices. Combined with potential income and livelihood losses, these rising costs could make food harder to afford. For many women, existing inequalities in employment and access to financial services leave them with fewer resources to absorb the shocks. More populous countries were found to have the largest numbers of women and girls who could face food insecurity. However, states such as South Sudan, Sudan, Haiti, Yemen, and Palestine face more concentrated risks, as multiple sources of vulnerability overlap.

In South Sudan, the additional number of women and girls who could face food insecurity represents around 14 per cent, or one in seven, of the female population — the highest proportion across the countries analyzed. In Lebanon, the figure represents nearly 4 per cent of the female population, the second-highest proportion. Women and girls are estimated to make up 60 per cent of people who could face food insecurity in Afghanistan, more than 57 per cent in Yemen, and nearly 56 per cent in Sudan. In Egypt, Iraq, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria, around 80 per cent of women are outside the labour force, rising to around 95 per cent in Afghanistan and Yemen. Among employed women, more than 80 per cent hold vulnerable jobs in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mali, and South Sudan.

Access to financial services could offer a buffer, but many women lack such access. In Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Yemen, fewer than one in five women owns a bank or mobile money account, limiting their ability to save, receive remittances or cash assistance, or borrow safely when prices rise.

“We know, as a matter of fact, that when food becomes scarce, women eat less and last. They often shift to less nutritious diets or skip meals altogether to prioritize the needs of others. Gender inequalities dictate who has access to food and the resources to obtain it. Therefore, investing in women and girls is a sure way of ensuring the well-being of families and communities,” said UN Women Deputy Executive Director Nyaradzayi Gumbonzvanda.

UN Women calls for an integrated response that combines food and cash assistance with nutrition, protection, livelihoods, and agricultural support, while ensuring women can access land, credit, services, and other productive assets. The agency urges resources to be targeted to places where women and girls face multiple, overlapping risks, and delivered at the right time, including ahead of agricultural seasons. Better data are needed to identify where food insecurity is worsening and who is eating less, losing livelihoods, taking on more unpaid care work, or facing heightened nutrition and protection risks within households.