UNEP report outlines emission cuts needed to return to 1.5°C | Report

Global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by 18 percent by 2030 and 45 percent by 2035 relative to 2025 levels to minimize overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold and return to it by the end of the century, according to a press release issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on 21 October 2026 in Nairobi. The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return examines a “lowest possible” 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around mid-century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C, with about a 50 per cent chance of returning to or below 1.5°C by 2100. The report also calls for a 69 per cent cut by 2040 relative to 2025 levels. It warns that current temperature projections remain far too high. Yet it concludes that returning to 1.5°C is still achievable.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy has boomed, total energy supply from coal and oil has grown slower than projected, and climate policies have reduced emissions in many places. The report links climate-related policies to dozens of structural shifts across developed and developing countries. More than 220 policy evaluations provide further evidence of what works. Evaluated policies in the electricity sector reduced emissions by an average of 9 per cent. Economic instruments such as carbon cap-and-trade schemes and carbon taxes achieved reductions of 5-13 per cent across sectors.

The full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would only reduce emissions by 5-8 per cent by 2030 and 11-15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century. If all NDCs are delivered, warming would be limited to 2.6°C. Even if all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets are achieved, warming would only be limited to 2.1°C. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C.

“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message on the report. He added that cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 per cent by 2030 and 45 per cent by 2035, compared with 2025 levels, is what it will take. The lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario also requires the removal and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 this century. That is equivalent to around eight years of 2024’s global CO2 emissions. Socioeconomic and technological challenges make achieving this uncertain.

The second Global Stocktake can build on the first by extending quantified goals to 2035 and 2040. Extending the renewables goal to 2035 would imply at least tripling renewable electricity capacity and reducing primary energy intensity of GDP by at least 30 per cent relative to 2025 levels. Reducing the share of coal, oil, and gas in total energy supply by at least 55, 15, and 5 per cent by 2035 would also be required. Electricity generation from coal would need to fall by at least 75 per cent in 2035 and be effectively phased out globally by 2040. “We have a wealth of success stories showing that emissions can be cut quickly,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.