Heat stress and rising temperatures are affecting worker safety and health, productivity, enterprises, and the wider economy in Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal and Sri Lanka, according to new multi-country studies released by the International Labour Organization (ILO) on 29 October 2026, according to a press release. The studies, launched at a high-level online event, show that risks are particularly acute in countries with high levels of outdoor and labour-intensive employment. Globally, 2.4 billion workers are exposed to excessive heat, with 80 million full-time jobs projected to be lost due to heat stress by 2030. Nearly 19,000 work-related deaths are attributable to excessive heat annually. The findings aim to inform policy responses that protect workers while sustaining productivity.
The six studies were commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), with funding provided through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund. They provide new evidence on the current and future effects of heat stress on workers, labour markets and national economies. Impacts are particularly significant in countries where employment is concentrated in agriculture, construction, fisheries, and transport. National climate conditions, economic structures and adaptive capacity shape the degree of exposure. The studies also identify policy measures to strengthen resilience as temperatures rise.
By 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway, job losses could range from around 2,400 full-time equivalent jobs in the Maldives to 1.78 million in Ethiopia. Other projected losses include 21,700 jobs in Lebanon, 129,000 in Senegal, 145,000 in Sri Lanka and 550,000 in Ghana. Annual GDP losses could range from US$575.5 million in the Maldives to US$33.3 billion in Ethiopia. Additional projected losses reach US$2.6 billion in Lebanon, US$10.5 billion in Senegal, US$23.2 billion in Ghana and US$26 billion in Sri Lanka. Impacts are expected to worsen over time, particularly under high-emissions scenarios.
By 2060, under high-emissions scenarios, job losses could range from 5,500–6,100 full-time equivalent jobs in the Maldives to 5–6 million in Ethiopia. Annual GDP losses could reach between US$1.6–1.7 billion in the Maldives and US$79.4–310.3 billion in Ethiopia. The studies highlight measures including occupational safety and health interventions, social protection and climate-resilient economic planning.
“Every single industry and every single workplace will stand to benefit from adapting workplaces to heat stress,” said Andreas Floris, lead author of the studies.
Participants reiterated the importance of social dialogue in shaping responses that reflect the needs of governments, employers, workers and affected communities.
Marlene Attallah, Deputy Director General, Ministry of Labour, Lebanon, said protecting workers from heat stress should be viewed as an investment in workers’ health, productivity and working conditions. Alpha Dia, Professor and Researcher at Senegal’s National Employers’ Council (CNP), described social dialogue as the best adaptation tool to heat stress. Ella Frankel of the International Union of Food, Agricultural, Hotel, Restaurant, Catering, Tobacco and Allied Workers’ Association (IUF) stated that no worker should ever have to choose between their health and their livelihood. The ILO Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all provide a policy framework for addressing the employment and social dimensions of climate-related change. Advancing a just transition and promoting decent work will be critical to safeguarding health, livelihoods and productivity.