The Barbados Red Cross and Belize Red Cross are piloting the first Early Action Protocols (EAPs) for tropical cyclones in their respective countries, developed through the Anticipatory Action for Small States (AA4SS) project led by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Disaster Response Emergency Fund (IFRC-DREF) with support from the Netherlands Red Cross, according to a press release by the IFRC. The initiative adapts the EAP tool to the context, resources and realities of small states. By linking meteorological forecasts to pre-agreed financing, the protocols aim to help communities and Red Cross teams protect homes, access and store safe water, and receive early warnings before a cyclone makes landfall. The pilot seeks to redefine anticipatory action for small island settings. It also aims to inform the ongoing global revision of EAP guidelines.
The Caribbean spans thirteen independent countries and multiple overseas territories, many accessible only by air or sea. These geographic features complicate the timely pre-positioning of relief supplies and require forward-looking operational planning. The region faces recurrent tropical cyclones, sudden flash floods and severe droughts. According to Shivanie Mahase, Programmes and Operations Officer for the IFRC in the Dutch and English-speaking Caribbean, it is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. In Belize, a category one hurricane could make landfall approximately once every six years.
Frontline communities such as Krooman Lagoon in Belize City experience this exposure directly. Victoria Gonzales, a Garifuna indigenous resident, recalled that families have faced three hurricanes in the area, with the 2016 event causing the most damage to the bridge. Her daughter, Gesmy Bernardez, highlighted the risks of crossing the community’s wooden footbridges during floods. In Barbados, Myrico Morris, President of the Welch/Bath Land Community Group in Welch Village, St. John, described the anxiety caused by Hurricane Beryl’s rapid intensification in 2024. Christophe Martin, Meteorologist at the Barbados Meteorological Service, stressed the importance of anticipatory action for national safety.
Anticipatory action has evolved steadily within the IFRC, which has been pioneering forecast-based approaches with National Societies since 2014. In 2018, the IFRC formally launched Forecast-based Action by the IFRC-DREF and incorporated anticipatory action into the IFRC Strategy 2030. The Operational Framework for Anticipatory Action was adopted in 2021, followed by the integration of the Anticipatory Pillar into the IFRC-DREF in 2022. Updated procedures launched in 2025 aim to make these tools more accessible for all National Societies.
Santiago Rodríguez, Senior Officer for Anticipatory Action for the IFRC-DREF, stated: “This protocol will help the Red Cross Societies to act before tropical cyclone strikes, using forecast to protect communities ahead of impact.”
Through AA4SS, the IFRC is testing an EAP that is simpler than the current Simplified EAP while remaining robust and accountable under IFRC-DREF standards. An EAP predefines forecast triggers, targeted early actions, operational budgets, and coordination procedures ahead of a hazard. When forecasts reach predefined certainty thresholds, the IFRC-DREF releases funding automatically. By piloting the minimum core package required—clear triggers, prioritized early actions, operational feasibility, and complete accountability—the project generates evidence for the global EAP revision. As Mahase concluded, Barbados and Belize Red Cross Societies “are opening the doors for small states everywhere to access similar financing.”