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Add to Preferred SourcesNuclear power’s electricity generating capacity risks shrinking in the coming decades as aging reactors are retired and the industry struggles with reduced competitiveness, according to a new IAEA report.
The declining trend may set back global efforts to mitigate climate change, IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said.
The 38th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, published on September 10, provides detailed global trends in nuclear power by region. Its projections1 for nuclear electricity generating capacity are presented as low and high estimates, reflecting different driving factors that have an impact on the worldwide deployment of the low-carbon energy source.
Overall, the new projections suggest that nuclear power may struggle to maintain its current place in the world’s energy mix. In the low case to 2030, the projections show nuclear electricity generating capacity falling by more than 10% from a net installed capacity of 392 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e)) at the end of 2017. In the high case, generating capacity increases 30% to 511 GW(e), a drop of 45 GW(e) from last year’s projection. Longer term, generating capacity declines to 2040 in the low case before rebounding to 2030 levels by mid-century, when nuclear is seen providing 2.8% of global generating capacity compared with 5.7% today.
“The declining trend in our low projection for installed capacity up to 2050 suggests that, without significant progress on using the full potential of nuclear power, it will be difficult for the world to secure sufficient energy to achieve sustainable development and to mitigate climate change,” Amano said.
Nuclear power produced about 10% of the world’s electricity in 2017, accounting for about one-third of total low-carbon electricity. As of today, the world’s 455 operating nuclear power reactors have a record level of 399.8 GW(e) total net installed capacity.
Still, interest in nuclear power remains strong in the developing world, particularly in Asia where countries such as China and India need huge amounts of electricity and also want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Commitments agreed to at the 21st session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) could also produce a positive impact on nuclear energy development in the future, according to the publication.
Read and download the report Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates
for the Period up to 2050
Original source: IAEA
Published on 10 September 2018