9.7 billion on Earth by 2050, but growth rate slowing, says new UN population report

By the year 2050, there will be some 9.7 billion people living on Earth, says a UN population report. However, the overall growth rate will continue to fall, and more countries will have to adapt to the consequences of an ageing population.

“The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights”, estimates that the next 30 years will see the global population add an extra 2 billion people to today’s figure of 7.7 billion, and, by the end of the century, the planet will have to sustain around 11 billion.

India is expected to show the highest population increase between now and 2050, overtaking China as the world’s most populous country, by around 2027. India, along with eight other countries, will make up over half of the estimated population growth between now and 2050.

The nine countries expected to show the biggest increase are India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America. In all, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to practically double by 2050.

However, growth in these countries comes against the backdrop of a slowing global fertility rate. In 1990, the average number of births per woman was 3.2. By 2019 this had fallen to 2.5 births per woman and, by 2050, this is projected to decline further to 2.2 births: a fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is necessary to avoid national population decline over the long run (in the absence of immigration).

The population size of more and more countries is actually falling. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have seen a drop of at least one percent, because of persistently low fertility rates.

In some cases, the falling population size is reinforced by high rates of  emigration, and migration flows have become a major reason for population change in certain regions.

“The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights”, is published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and provides a comprehensive overview of global demographic patterns and prospects. The report is based on population estimates from 1950 to the present for 235 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends. The 2019 revision also includes population projections to the year 2100, that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels.

Read the World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights here.

Original source: UN News
Published on 12 June 2019