The severity of lockdown measures has been similar across the globe, impacting both economies and people’s lives. It is estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic will push an additional 88 to 115 million people into extreme poverty this year, with the total rising to as many as 150 million by 2021 depending on the severity of the economic recession. A second lockdown is already a reality in several countries. What impact will it have this time? Check some opinions below.
How stringent are the lockdown measures in terms of countries’ income levels?
“During the initial phase of lockdown measures, the level of stringency and severity seemed to be tied to whether residents were densely populated, the accessibility and ease of mobility across borders and the extent to which public health services were readily available. In the first wave, as the effects and impact of the virus were not well understood, most countries were rather strict regardless of income levels with the notable exception of a few, mostly wealthier, countries in Europe and the Americas. However, as the virus has continued, it seems that the poorer economies have endured much longer and more severe lockdowns in an effort to gain better control over the virus. In terms of impact, the virus has created a severe strain on health systems. For economies dependent on manufacturing and trade, the economic losses have been substantial.”
“Recent data indicates that 1 in every 3 citizens in Sub-Saharan Africa (app. 422 million people) are living below the global poverty line. Equally important to note is that, unlike most western economies, sub-Saharan countries don’t have much of a social safety net for their citizens to cater for income loss. In this situation, it becomes vital that the economic wheels at the individual level keep moving despite the pandemic or government imposed lockdowns, as this is the only license for survival. It’s against this backdrop that most governments have not imposed very stringent lockdown measures, but instead opted to limit access to non-core aspects of personal liberties such as assembling for worship or socializing in pubs and bars.”
What is the impact of a second lockdown on developing countries?
“As each country has had to deal with the enormity of its own domestic impacts of COVID-19, the increased demands for humanitarian and health care assistance exceeds supply. Countries dependent on manufacturing, food production for export and tourism remain hard hit. The lack of international mobility due to travel restrictions has constrained the ability of external humanitarian actors from being able to enter a country to help with needed health care.”
“The second COVID-19 lockdown has had an immediate effect on most sub-Saharan countries. As most youths in African cities are either self-employed in the artisan industry or are casual laborers, the effect of this lockdown at the household level might be adverse if strictly enforced by governments. The tourism, hospitality and transport industries will be the worst hit as lockdown will limit access to these sectors. On the upside, however, as most African countries are largely agricultural, this might slightly cushion a large sector of the economy and economic players supported by this industry in the short term. However, if the global travel restrictions persist, this might also become a problem as agricultural products won’t be able to reach their target export markets.”
What should the international community do regarding this matter?
“As most economically vulnerable countries may not have the resources and infrastructure with which to develop and distribute effective medicines and vaccines (assuming such are developed in the near future), these countries will fall even further behind in terms of recovery from the virus. Therefore, priorities need to be set that would quickly provide such medicines, vaccines and other resources to these countries so their populations can enjoy the benefits of a quicker recovery from the pandemic. Another area that needs to be addressed is the prevalence of misinformation and disinformation. Even in well developed economies, “fake news” and false information campaigns threaten to delay the recovery, even when vaccines are finally ready for distribution. Gaining public confidence that attacking the virus is best done through scientifically-based means is important.”
“With regard to the effects of COVID-19, the international community should continue to partner with African governments or private organizations directly to ensure a transparent exchange of information on the science around the novel coronavirus. Adequate knowledge on how to contain the virus is vital to ensure the battle against it is won. Furthermore, any form of support towards the ease of access to PPE (especially for health workers) and medical equipment geared towards the support of those already infected with COVID-19 will go a long way to make a positive difference in the current situation.”
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