National NDC Fiscal Modelling Specialist

Background

1.Background

Iraq Vision 2030 integrates with the environmental goal to create a clean, safe, and sustainable environment for the current and future generations. Iraq ratified the Paris agreement on January 14, 2021. President Saleh said at the United Nations Climate Ambition Summit: This move marks the Iraqi government’s intention to shift from relying heavily on oil to more renewable energy sources. Iraq is wrapping up its NDC to define Iraq’s strategic objectives and commitments towards climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Iraq plans for transition towards green economy. More than ever before, Iraq recognises that a healthy and sustainable economy is that the diversified and green one, this includes renewable energy and environmentally-sound technologies and enhance the resilience of communities most vulnerable to climate change.

According to the NDC, Iraq aims to achieve reduction period between 1% and 2% of its total emissions from 2021 to 2030 through the national effort and 15% subject to the international financial and technical support. Iraq aims to develop its National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) with priority to the electricity sector by investing in renewable energies of up to 12 GW based on the Cabinet's economic decisions for 2021.

Accounting for NDC mitigation targets is required under the Paris Agreement (Article 4.13) and can assist Parties in understanding their own and others’ mitigation targets as well as individual and collective progress toward mitigation goals. As part of the core mandate of Ministry of Finance (MOF) is the design and implementation of sound macro-economic policies and public finances, the economic and social impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly relevant for the wellbeing of the society. The MoF needs to strengthen its involvement in the preparation and delivery of NDC targets.

Iraqi MoF needs to create an effective and achievable NDC by providing reliable costing and macroeconomic assessments of climate interventions. Macroeconomic analysis can improve decision making for optimizing economic benefits and mitigating risks from climate change. Costing gives a more precise idea of the financial resources required to implement the different programs and interventions, the feasibility within macro-fiscal constraints, and a strong basis for budget allocation negotiations. These tools improve the chances of NDCs being designed as realistic and achievable commitments, and can attract greater levels of support.

It is essential for institutionalising NDCs into national fiscal systems. Monitoring financial flows or tagging expenditures are common tools and link climate throughout the budget cycle. MOF can pursue a variety of entry points and phased approaches to suit their economic situation when mainstreaming their NDC.

Duties and Responsibilities

SCOPE OF WORK AND TASKS

The objective of this project is the enabling the environment for post NDC in Iraq by addressing essential fiscal reform and improve understanding of the economic and financial implications of NDC implementation.

An effective NDC needs reliable costing of climate change interventions underpinned by macroeconomic analysis. Both can improve decision making for optimizing economic benefits and mitigating risks from climate change. Costing gives a more precise idea of the financial resources required to implement the different programs and interventions for both conditional and unconditional mitigation targets, the feasibility within macro-fiscal constraints, and a strong basis for budget allocation negotiations. Costing is a process that can help identify what NDC activities can be paid for publicly and what may need private partnerships, or international assistance. An NDC underpinned by strong financial data can be particularly beneficial to countries vulnerable to climate risks as there can be an associated perceived financial risk.

For the duration of this post, the Specialist will be working under the overall guidance and supervision of the International NDC Fiscal Modelling Expert and in close collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, as well as in coordination with the UNDP EECC program manager and FFER-Federal Project Manager.

These duties are to be performed jointly with the assigned international expert.

Conduct desktop review of existing policies that relates to Energy, NDC, Climate change, fiscal policies in Iraq at both national and provisional levels, and identify policy types and levels of application of policy in Iraq.
Facilitate a national workshop with all stakeholders to demonstrate best practice of NDC fiscal modelling, and present regionally (or globally) available case studies.
Conduct wide consultation process with stakeholders including any relevant government authorities, private sector, academia, UN Agencies and other development partners to identify gaps and opportunities for NDC discal reform in Iraq. This includes consultations with decision makers and Government Ministry officials throughout the project to ensure adequate inputs are provided by all relevant stakeholders. Data requests should also be made at the start of and during the project.
Work with the international expert to undertake macro-fiscal assessment: The objective of this macroeconomic assessment is to help understand whether Iraq’s NDC targets support economic growth, boost development, or somehow threaten the economy, worsening the pain they were supposed to relieve. It also includes assessment of existing financial system and carbon market opportunities for Iraq. Additionally, it calculates marginal abatement costs to refine mitigation options, and apply modelling different scenarios to assess the impacts on GDP forecast. With this approach, the government will develop a good understanding of the costs and benefits associated with NDC implementation, and will identify what could and could not be achieved within current economic realities. It is expected that these findings will have further knock on effects such as using the data to develop an expenditure framework that will be incorporated into the budget cycle.
Work with the international expert to develop NDC fiscal model for Iraq to support the development and analysis of long-term scenarios and assist in quantifying the implications of NDCs implementation on the fiscal planning.
Support the development of requirements and guidelines needed for GoI for new financial instruments, including new financial instruments GoI can adopt to implement NDC.
Assess capacity needs of the MoF and its staff to conduct NDC fiscal modelling, and build capabilities of MoF’s personnel in undertaking NDC fiscal modelling, this will help to continue investing in capacity, include developing technical skills to assess the cost of inaction, financial flows, adaption and to incorporate macroeconomic analysis on a more permanent basis within the MoF.

Competencies

The consultant will require the following qualifications, experience, competencies and language skills. Only applicants who meet these criteria will be short-listed and will be contacted.

Required Skills and Experience

QUALIFICATIONS AND REQUIREMENTS

Education and Professional Qualifications Required:

At least, a Master’s Degree or equivalent in Economics, fiscal reforms, Climate Change, or related field.

Experience Required:

At least 5 years of relevant working experience in economics, green growth, fiscal modelling, climate change-reform or environmental management.
Experience in facilitating dialogue among key stakeholders at a high political level to formulate, validate and adopt reform priorities.
Demonstrated ability to facilitate workshops/meetings and present technical findings to a wide audience.
Experience with and knowledge of UN and or UNDP policies and procedures desirable
Demonstrated ability to write high quality technical reports in English
Experience in the usage of office software packages (MS Word, Excel, etc) is required
Fluency in Arabic language and ability to conduct meetings in Arabic is an asset.