The pledges regarding greenhouse gas reduction made during COP26 are not sufficient to maintain a temperature rise below 1.5C. It has transpired that under the current commitments made, global temperatures may reach over 2.4C by the end of this century.
The COP26 UN Climate Change Conference, the world’s biggest climate event, brought together about 25,000 people including state leaders, scientists, activists, negotiators, and journalists. The main hope for the event was for countries to commit to staunch actions to prevent and mitigate the consequences of climate change.
Different researches, the same outcome
Despite the many ambitious pledges that were made during COP26, research published during the event does not instill optimism. It shows that under the short-term goals set by countries on emissions reduction, the temperature will rise up to 2.4C by the end of this century. Another assessment made by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the world’s most respected source of climate analysis, indicates the same result – air temperature will rise by 2.4C by the end of this century.
Prior to this, other estimations had been published during COP26 which had assumed that under the latest commitments and the long-term goals set by participating states, including India aiming to become carbon neutral by 2070, the temperature would have risen to 1.8C or 1.9C. If this was achievable then the increase could still be kept within the Paris Agreement’s upper limit of 2C. CAT also found that under current commitments, in 2030 emissions will be twice as high as they should be if we are to remain at around 1.5C.
Pledges vs reality
CAT global update: Glasgow has a credibility gap between talk and action. If all govts met their 2030 targets, we would have 2.4˚C of warming in 2100. But right now, current policies put us at 2.7˚C. https://t.co/dkX4jAbo2f
A Thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/EdLlIfdhXt— ClimateActionTracker (@climateactiontr) November 9, 2021
What is more, CAT discovered that there is inconsistency between the countries’ pledges concerning emission reductions and the actual policies they carry out to achieve this. Based on the current measures that are being undertaken to curb climate changes, the temperature will rise up to 2.7C by the end of century and if we want to maintain the global temperature at around 1.5C, we need to cut global emissions by 45% within this decade alone.
“We are concerned that some countries are trying to portray [COP26] as if the 1.5C limit is nearly in the bag. But it’s not, it’s very far from it, and they are downplaying the need to get short-term targets for 2030 in line with 1.5C,” said Bill Hare, the Chief Executive of Climate Analytics which was behind the CAT findings.
COP26 still far from success
Scientists and activists have no doubts that the goals and their implementation must be more ambitious to prevent temperature rise.
“This new calculation is like a telescope trained on an asteroid heading for Earth. It’s a devastating report that in any sane world would cause governments in Glasgow to immediately set aside their differences and work with uncompromising vigor for a deal to save our common future,” says Greenpeace International’s Executive Director, Jennifer Morgan.
Failing to keep temperature rise within 1.5C will result in a sharp increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, heatwaves, and rising sea levels which will have a devastating impact on the planet and will make some parts of the world no longer habitable, especially in the global south.
