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2021, the sixth warmest year on record

Joanna Kedzierska
Joanna Kedzierska Jan 28, 2022
2021, the sixth warmest year on record

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In 2021 the global surface temperature was the sixth highest in history according to recent research. Moreover, scientists warn that if this rate of warming continues, the world will exceed 1.5C by 2033.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently presented an analysis showing that in 2021 the air temperature was the sixth highest in the Northern Hemisphere since 1880 with only two years being warmer, 2020 (the warmest) and 2016 (second warmest). Yet 2021 hit records in terms of the temperature measured on land surfaces in Northern Africa, Southern Asia, and Southern South America. In general, in 2021 North America, South America, Europe, and Asia each saw an annual temperature that ranked among the ninth warmest on record. On the other hand, although for Oceania 2021 was a warmer than average year, it was the coolest since 2012.

Similar observations have been made by Berkeley Earth, a US non-governmental environment research organization. Berkeley ranked 2021 as the sixth warmest year on Earth since 1850 although the Berkeley scientists found that 2021 was significantly colder than 2020.

Scientists from both organizations have linked the temporary drop in air temperature with La Niña, a weather phenomenon that tends to cool global temperatures. It occurred in the second half of 2020 and therefore significantly impacted temperatures at the end of 2020 and in 2021.

Sea ice, cyclones and oceans temperatures

Data from NOAA and Berkeley shows that in 2021:

  • Oceans reached the seventh-highest temperature in history, surpassing those recorded in 2020
  • The extent of the monthly Arctic sea ice was the 10th smallest in history with the exceptions of September and December. Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center showed that the average sea ice extent neared 6.5 million kilometers in 2021.
  • The annual Antarctic sea ice extent was slightly below average, standing at about 7 million kilometers. In March, July, and August the monthly extent was ranked among the 10th largest for each respective month while October, November, and December had a monthly extent ranked among the fourth smallest.
  • 94 storms hit Earth, the 10th highest number in 41 years on record. Of these, 37 were tropical cyclones of hurricane strength which is the lowest number on record.

Projections

Berkeley projects that 2022 will be similar to 2021 in terms of air temperature or perhaps slightly warmer although it might still be relatively cool due to the La Niña phenomenon. However, scientists warn that if La Niña turns into El Niño, 2022 will be the warmest year and there is a 14% probability that this will be the case. Berkeley also warns that at the current rate of rises in temperature, the long-term average increase in air temperature will reach 1.5 degrees by 2033 – a pessimistic scenario under the Paris Agreement and means that by 2060 the increase will reach 2 degrees.