Brazil, the country with the third-highest number of deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, is facing a new wave of COVID-19 across the nation. Despite the progress being made with vaccinations, the Omicron variant and a new influenza virus have been gaining strength and reaching previous records of daily cases. To prevent these from becoming out of control, Brazilians, known for their famous Carnival, have had to cancel the event for the second year running. Without this celebration, the economy is likely to incur billions in losses.
Last Friday (February 11th), the South American country registered 1,121 deaths from COVID-19 bringing the total to 637,232 since the beginning of the pandemic. The moving average of deaths in the last seven days is over 900 – the highest recorded in almost six months, since August 2021 when it stood at 884. Compared to the average of two weeks ago, the difference is +109%, indicating an upward trend in deaths resulting from the disease.
Hospitals throughout Brazil are once again suffering from overcrowding and difficulties in providing care. Experts say this new wave of disease is being caused mostly by those people who have not been vaccinated.
“About 90% of admissions that take place in hospitals in São Paulo are unvaccinated. Most arrive here regretting not having been immunized. Many do not get a second chance,” commented Alvaro Costa, an infectologist.
With the seemingly uncontrollable situation of the disease, at least nine Brazilian cities – including Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Salvador, and Recife – have canceled the popular Carnival street parties that normally begin in the last week of February. The traditional samba school parades have also had to be postponed and may not now take place before April at the earliest.
“Canceling Carnival at this time is bad for the economy, but necessary to save lives. Brazil has advanced a lot in vaccination, but Omicron has a much greater power of contamination than the other variants”, warned Alvaro Costa. “In 2020, in the pre-pandemic period, Carnival took place normally and, months later, we saw the consequence of the explosion of cases and deaths”, he added.
Billions in losses
During the Carnival 2020, just before the health crisis, local revelers and tourists brought US$200 million to the city of São Paulo alone. This equates to 6.5% of the total tourist revenue for the whole year according to estimates by the city hall. This year, losses will exceed US$300 million, equivalent to more than one billion reais.
Hotels have reported the cancellation of reservations, bars and restaurants predict lower revenue, and costume and prop stores are already suffering losses. This scenario could also affect levels of employment in terms of the number of jobs created.
The situation is no different in Rio where the suspension of the revelry could cost the economy US$500 million. Throughout Brazil, the entire loss could exceed US$1.6 billion according to estimates by the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC) with about 70,000 jobs failing to be created throughout the country.
“Brazil is a country that moves after Carnival. There are families that earn their financial reserves at this time of year and this will impact all of 2022 financially”, explains Thiago Oliveira, composer and carnival specialist. “Two years without a popular party represents less economic and also cultural and social development in an entire country”, he added.
The impact on Brazilian commerce is so huge that the rise in COVID-19 cases has reduced the flow of customers and changed the operations of small and medium-sized companies that, in some cases, have even needed to suspend their activities due to the absence of those employees infected by the virus. Data from Fecomercio, an entity that represents the sector, shows that in January alone, four out of 10 businesses had employees absent due to COVID-19.
The absence of the Carnival will also weigh heavily on important Brazilian popular shopping centers such as Saara in Rio de Janeiro and 25 de Março Street in São Paulo that now face a 40% reduction in revenue compared to 2020.
In the stores that sell costumes, the mood is also miserable. January and February are traditionally very busy months with people choosing their outfits for the celebrations. This year, however, they are empty and amassing losses.
“I waited for the cancellation decision to suspend my imports, and I had to drastically reduce the purchase of costumes and invest in items for decoration for parties at home,” explained Rodrigo Oliveira, the owner of a store selling carnival costumes in São Paulo. “It’s another wasted year. I don’t know if I have the financial strength to hold on until the next Carnival. The answer may be to close the doors,” he lamented.
