Russia’s unprecedented attack on Ukraine has shattered peace in the whole Europe, forcing experts to speak about a new European order within just a few days since the beginning of the invasion. It also triggered a humanitarian crisis that needs to be urgently addressed both inside the country, as well as outside given the huge refugee flow. In an exclusive interview with DevelopmentAid, the Director of the European Power program within the European Council on Foreign Relations, Susi Dennison, reveals pertinent insights about the Russian invasion in Ukraine, opinions about the response from world leaders, and the threats and pressure that have affected the world during the last few days.
DevelopmentAid: Nobody expected such a scenario as the one now taking place in Ukraine. Things could become even worse in the context of the latest news. All eyes are on the war scene. What are your perspectives regarding a potential escalation of the conflict?
Susi Dennison: Much of the analytical community has been shocked by Russia’s threat against Ukraine as an unfair game of brinkmanship that we have witnessed in the past few days. The use of military force has been far from being an empty threat. It is a major watershed moment in terms of the way Europeans think about security now. The scale of the realization for Europeans could be noticed in the statement from the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, about the increase of defence spending. Powers such as Germany or Sweden are now sending lethal aid to the Ukrainian people. The war scene we are following now will drive watershed historic decisions having to be made very quickly. In the last few days, we have moved into a new era in terms of the European order.
DevelopmentAid: The world stands with Ukraine. The resistance of the Ukrainian people is impressive.
Susi Dennison: The scale of the Ukrainian resistance is well beyond the expectations that Putin had. I think that there is a huge admiration across the world for the fight that is being put up at the moment. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to change the perspective that this is likely to be a protracted situation.
DevelopmentAid: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has mentioned several times that the Ukrainian people have found themselves in the situation of fighting on their own against Russian aggression. The world leaders announced a series of measures as part of the response to condemn Russia’s invasion and support Ukraine. What measures are being taken among those already announced?
Susi Dennison: The increased investment from the West in terms of weapons being sent to Ukraine is likely being met with increased force being fed in from the Russian side. I think that what would be absolutely crucial now is the support sent to the Ukrainian people to get through this situation beyond military support. I don’t refer only to the humanitarian packages that the EU is saying that it is going to send, but also in terms of managing the response to refugees who have been able to leave the country and arrive in Europe. I think that on that front we are also seeing positive signs in terms of the willingness of European countries to cooperate in a way that was not the case with the example of the Syria crisis in 2015. The point I fear on that front is that as the situation becomes more protracted whether the European political system will withstand the sustained pressure on it that this new reality involves.
DevelopmentAid: The unprecedented military support announced by the EU member states has been mentioned but is the military mobilization a strong enough argument to halt Russia’s aggression?
Susi Dennison: The sanctions are fairly unprecedented in terms of their speed and far-reaching nature. My understanding is that the impact coordinated with other global players is likely to bite fairly quickly. In terms of a broader response, what is vital is that Putin can see the willingness of the European side to push back. What we have noticed for years is that Russia has been testing Europeans around how much we will accept. I think what is significant in a package of responses that Europeans are putting together is to demonstrate a very clear line – this is not acceptable. What will be significant is how long we have to sustain that for.
DevelopmentAid: We are living in a different world today, a world marked by war and tragedy. The peace in Europe was shattered as Russia launched an unprecedented attack against Ukraine. Is peace in Europe already a paradox?
Susi Dennison: Firstly, one very clear political message that comes to me out of the European response is that the idea of Europe extends to Ukraine. One of the reasons the EU leaders felt empowered to coordinate the type of response they have is the wave of public feeling – outrage about the situation in Ukraine. If Europeans no longer feel they live on a continent where there is peace then the positive side of that is that they will condone the use of the necessary measures to respond to that. The other point I take away from that is the fact that as we are no longer in a state of peace this is a sort of justification for the collective European action and this is very clearly backed in terms of the way people are thinking about cooperation on things like sanctions, the ability to put together the kind of support packages we have done and the ability to actually stand up to a bully like Russia and this comes from our operating as a block. So, I think from that point of view, if the prospect of war in Europe is now real again then the old justification in the way the EU reacts is also real again for the European people.
DevelopmentAid: Would it be appropriate to identify the most vulnerable countries in terms of the Russian invasion when the threat is imminent for the whole world?
Susi Dennison: I think that the whole of Europe is threatened, but there are obviously variations within that. Certainly, the countries that have borders with or close to Russia are inevitably feeling more vulnerable right now and are also bearing a much larger burden in terms of refugee flows, destabilization, and economic pressure. As things are now, there is quite a lot of effort being made to push support towards where it is needed – to the more vulnerable countries in a military sense, a refugee sense, a humanitarian sense, etc. I think that the question for me is about the longer term, that the support mechanism stays in place.
DevelopmentAid: More than half a million people have fled Ukraine since the invasion began. Humanitarian aid mechanisms have been put in place to provide support to those people who decided to leave their homes and lives behind looking for a safer place unlike those left threatened by imminent attacks. How would you comment upon the efforts being made towards helping these people? Will the short-term solutions emerge into long-term policies?
Susi Dennison: I imagine we will see a combination of both. I think there will be an initial humanitarian response to the countries that are providing shelter for refugees at the moment, but what is also needed is a willingness to kick in a sort of allocations scheme within the EU. And I know that what is being looked at is the protection mechanism which was developed several years ago which has not been implemented so far but allows entry to the EU to work for a limited number of years in an emergency crisis situation like this one. That is what the Commission is putting forward as a kind of EU response in order to enable it to take more refugees.
DevelopmentAid: Establishing peace in Europe taking into account the magnitude of the conflict is a challenging mission. How could peace be established in Europe?
Susi Dennison: I was surprised to see that the negotiations had begun so quickly, but I think that what is important is to establish an understanding of what the demands are on the Russian side. Keeping that diplomatic dialogue open is absolutely crucial and keeping open the sense we have been talking about from the beginning – Europeans’ perception of what Russia has done is that it is totally unacceptable and the support to Ukraine will be continuous. It is about keeping that pressure up. And I think there is on the European side keeping the solidarity between other European countries, supporting the refugees who have been affected by the conflict, but also ensuring that the Putin narrative about what is happening in Ukraine doesn’t divide Europeans, but they have a common position as we have seen now. I think that the decision to be taken is to move certain Russia media channels out of Europe. We have to take into consideration not only the traditional media but there is a lot to be done in terms of social media as well. Strong response will be part of the picture.
DevelopmentAid: Russia’s effort to spread disinformation and propaganda has ramped up from the beginning of the conflict. How would you stop the manipulative Russian informational framework?
Susi Dennison: A big part of it is actually about consumers’ intelligence, what people are reading and what they have been fed. My hope is that one small positive to come out of what we have seen is a sort of the reality behind Vladimir Putin that serves as an awakening in terms of the EU consciousness about the type of information people are being fed. The attempt to frame the justification for the invasion of Ukraine, the necessity of “denazification” of the government in Ukraine was clearly an overstep in terms of disinformation from Putin’s point of view and was completely ludicrous.
