Chronic land degradation: UN offers stark warnings and practical remedies in Global Land Outlook 2

ByUnited Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

Chronic land degradation: UN offers stark warnings and practical remedies in Global Land Outlook 2

The way land resources – soil, water, and biodiversity – are currently mismanaged and misused threatens the health and continued survival of many species on Earth, warns a stark new report from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

It also points decision-makers to hundreds of practical ways to affect local, national, and regional land and ecosystem restoration. UNCCD’s evidence-based flagship Global Land Outlook 2 (GLO2) report, five years in development with 21 partner organizations, and with over 1,000 references, is the most comprehensive consolidation of information on the topic ever assembled.

It offers an overview of unprecedented breadth and projects the planetary consequences of three scenarios through 2050: business as usual, restoration of 50 million square km of land, and restoration measures augmented by the conservation of natural areas important for specific ecosystem functions.

It also assesses the potential contributions of land restoration investments to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, poverty reduction, human health, and other key sustainable development goals.

Warns the report: “At no other point in modern history has humanity faced such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks and hazards, interacting in a hyper-connected and rapidly changing world. We cannot afford to underestimate the scale and impact of these existential threats. Conserving, restoring, and using our land resources sustainably is a global imperative, one that requires action on a crisis footing…Business as usual is not a viable pathway for our continued survival and prosperity.”

GLO2 offers hundreds of examples from around the world that demonstrate the potential of land restoration. It is being released before the UNCCD’s 15th session of the Conference of Parties to be held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire (COP15, 9-20 May).

Says Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the UNCCD: “Modern agriculture has altered the face of the planet more than any other human activity. We need to urgently rethink our global food systems, which are responsible for 80% of deforestation, 70% of freshwater use, and the single greatest cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss. Investing in large-scale land restoration is a powerful, cost-effective tool to combat desertification, soil erosion, and loss of agricultural production. As a finite resource and our most valuable natural asset, we cannot afford to continue taking land for granted.”

Future scenarios

The report predicts the outcomes by 2050 and the risks involved under three scenarios:

Baseline: Business, as usual, continues current trends in land and natural resource degradation, while demands for food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy continue to rise. Land management practices and climate change continue to cause widespread soil erosion, declining fertility and growth in yields, and the further loss of natural areas due to expanding agriculture.

By 2050:

  • 16 million square kilometers show continued land degradation (the size of South America)
  • A persistent, long-term decline in vegetative productivity is observed for 12-14% of agricultural, pasture, and grazing land, and natural areas – with sub-Saharan Africa worst affected.
  • An additional 69 gigatonnes of carbon is emitted from 2015 to 2050 due to land-use change and soil degradation This represents 17% of current annual greenhouse gas emissions: soil organic carbon (32 gigatonnes), vegetation (27 gigatonnes), peatland degradation/conversion (10 gigatonnes).

Restoration: Assumes the restoration of around 5 billion hectares (50 million square kilometers or 35% of the global land area) using measures such as agroforestry, grazing management, and assisted natural regeneration. (Current international pledges: 10 million square kilometers).

By 2050:

  • Crop yields increase by 5-10% in most developing countries compared to the baseline. Improved soil health leads to higher crop yields, with the largest gains in the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America, and subSaharan Africa, limiting food price increases.
  • Soil water holding capacity would increase by 4% in rainfed croplands.
  • Carbon stocks rise by a net 17 gigatonnes between 2015 and 2050 due to gains in soil carbon and reduced emission
  • Biodiversity continues to decline, but not as quickly, with 11% of biodiversity loss averted.

Restoration and Protection: This scenario includes the restoration measures, augmented with protection measures of areas important for biodiversity, water regulation, conservation of soil and carbon stocks, and provision of critical ecosystem functions.

By 2050:

  • An additional 4 million square kilometers of natural areas (the size of India and Pakistan); the largest gains are expected in South and Southeast Asia and Latin America. Protections would prevent land degradation by logging, burning, draining, or conversion.
  • About a third of the biodiversity loss projected in the baseline would be prevented
  • An additional 83 gigatonnes of carbon are stored compared to the baseline. Avoided emissions and increased carbon storage would be equivalent to more than seven years of total current global emissions.