Off-grid solar expected to electrify 624 million people by 2030 but ‘game changers’ are needed to achieve universal access goals

Released at the Global Off-Grid Solar Forum and Expo in Rwanda, the second part of the Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022, ‘Outlook’, published jointly by the World Bank‘s Lighting Global, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), GOGLA, Efficiency for Access Coalition, and Open Capital Advisors, projects the number of people who will be electrified by off-grid solar solutions by 2030 and highlights the game changers needed to meet SDG7 electrification targets.

Building on the first part of the report which details the current ‘State of the Sector, which was released earlier this month, part two provides an ‘Outlook’ to 2030.

Key Findings:

624 million people are expected to access Tier 1+ off-grid solar energy solutions by 2030

• Under the projected access scenario, 624 million people will be connected to Tier 1 and above electricity access by 2030 via off-grid solar solutions
• In addition to people gaining first-time access to modern electricity, millions of households in ‘weak grid’ areas will also benefit from off-grid solutions and productive use technologies
• Under this scenario, the off-grid solar sector is expected to grow by 5% annually and receive $7.8 billion in investment
• However, the projected access scenario is dependent on continued industry support via interventions such as positive fiscal policy, grants, and subsidies
• Depending on the development of a range of factors, the industry could grow faster, at 7.2% annually, or slower at 2.8% annually

Despite significant electrification gains through OGS in the projected access scenario, without game changers, universal access – a core pillar of SDG7 – will not be achieved

• Without game changers, 526 million people will remain unelectrified in 2030 under the projected access scenario. A majority of them are located in nascent and emerging markets
• The projected investment is also $15.5 billion short of the amount needed to reach SDG7 electrification targets
• Of the total investment required to achieve SDG7, $4.5 billion is needed to subsidize access by poor and vulnerable households
• Even greater amounts of investment are needed to reach the 569 million and 192 million smallholder farmers who could benefit from off-grid cold storage and solar water pumps, respectively, in India and sub-Saharan Africa between now and 2030
• Off-grid solutions will be critical in supporting education and healthcare by providing cost-effective electrification for schools and health centers and helping provide cold storage for critical health supplies such as vaccines
• Game changers, including greater availability of pay-as-you-go consumer financing, strategic investor engagement, diversified ‘beyond energy’ business models, and an increase in subsidies and concessional finance are needed to ensure that off-grid solar companies can accelerate the pace of electrification and help meet SDG7 targets