Over 51% of the world’s population will be overweight or obese by 2035 if the current trends persist, according to the latest report on the global status of obesity published by the World Obesity Federation. The report warns against a looming global health crisis and notes that this alarming increase in obesity could cost up to US$4.32 trillion or 3% of global GDP.
Overweight and obesity are major global health concerns and are now considered to be the fifth leading cause of death worldwide. Each year, an estimated 2.8 million adults die from weight-related complications such as diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, and certain types of cancer. Additionally, obesity has a negative impact on economies as it lowers working capacity and productivity, decreases life expectancy and inflates healthcare spending.
Obesity rates on the ups
The World Obesity Atlas 2023 indicates that, by 2035, over half of the world’s population is expected to have a high body mass index (BMI ≥25kg/m²), with one in four people being classified as obese (BMI ≥30kg/m²) compared to one in seven currently. The report also suggests that childhood obesity rates will increase, with the number of affected boys predicted to double to 208 million and that of girls likely to increase by 125% to 175 million. Commenting on the findings of the report, the President of the World Obesity Federation, Professor Louise Baur, said:
“This year’s Atlas is a clear warning that by failing to address obesity today, we risk serious repercussions in the future. It is particularly worrying to see obesity rates rising fastest among children and adolescents. Governments and policymakers around the world need to do all they can to avoid passing health, social, and economic costs on to the younger generation. That means looking urgently at the systems and root factors that contribute to obesity and actively involving young people in the solutions. If we act together now, we have the opportunity to help billions of people in the future.”
Fig.1.Global overweight and obesity, 2020–2035
Number of people (aged over 5 years) and percentage of the population with overweight or obesity:
Source: World Obesity Atlas 2023
(Children and adolescents (aged 5–19 years))
Source: World Obesity Atlas 2023
Economic impact
Obesity could cost the global economy over US$4 trillion annually by 2035, almost matching the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. According to the report, every region around the world is expected to witness a surge in the economic impact of overweight and obesity by 2035. The Americas are predicted to bear the highest costs as a proportion of GDP, while the Western Pacific region is anticipated to face the highest total costs of US$1.56 trillion.
These staggering figures underscore the urgent need for policymakers to take swift action to address the obesity epidemic, given its potential impact on the global economy. The CEO of the World Obesity Federation, Johanna Ralston, expressed her concerns, noting:
“Let’s be clear: the economic impact of obesity is not the fault of individuals living with the disease. It is a result of high-level failures to provide the environmental, healthcare, food, and support systems that we all need to live happy, healthy lives. Addressing these issues will be valuable in so many ways, to billions of people. We simply cannot afford to ignore the rising rates of obesity any longer. We hope that the findings of this latest Atlas will convince policymakers and civil society to take action and make tangible commitments to change in their regions.”
Fig.2.Global economic impact of high BMI (BMI ≥25kg/m²) 2020–2035
Source: World Obesity Atlas 2023
Impact per groups of countries
Obesity has long been thought of as a problem mainly for high-income countries, but a recent report reveals that low and lower-middle-income countries are also seeing a rise in obesity levels. Unfortunately, these countries are often the least equipped to deal with the consequences of obesity. In low-income countries, the prevalence of obesity in adults is expected to double by 2035, with men seeing an increase from 5% to 11% and women from 14% to 26%. The economic impact of high BMI is predicted to reach a staggering US$9 billion annually. Meanwhile, lower-middle-income countries are expected to see a similar trend, with obesity levels nearly doubling for men and women. The economic impact here is predicted to exceed the tremendous sum of US$362 billion annually by 2035.
In upper-middle-income countries, the prevalence of obesity among adults is expected to reach 27%, with an economic impact of over US$1.6 trillion annually and even in high-income countries, where obesity has long been a concern of policymakers, the prevalence of obesity among adults is still skyrocketing. By 2035, nearly 42% of men and 37% of women are expected to be obese, with the economic impact rising to nearly US$2.3 trillion annually.
With obesity affecting the world to such an extent, WHO advisers will convene from April 24-28 to evaluate the addition of liraglutide, an active ingredient in some diabetes and obesity medications, to the list of essential medicines. Liraglutide reduces food consumption, promotes weight loss, and improves metabolic functions. It activates the hindbrain and hypothalamus, leading to decreased food intake, increased metabolism, and reduced weight. This could offer a fresh approach to combat obesity and help those affected.
