The proportion of people aged over 65 in high-income countries reached a historic high in 2022, the World Bank’s latest World Development Report 2023 highlights. As this figure is expected to continue to rise, some nations will rely heavily on immigration from less wealthy countries to sustain their economies, the report notes.
According to the World Development Report 2023, individuals aged over 65 in high-income countries accounted for 19% of the total population in 2022 and this figure is expected to continue to rise. This demographic shift is placing significant pressure on the global economy. For instance, in the Republic of Korea, the most rapidly aging country, one out of every six people will be over the age of 80 by 2050, four times the current rate.
Most middle-income countries are also in the midst of a demographic transition with plummeting fertility rates. Countries such as Bangladesh, China, India, Mauritius, Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia, and Turkey have fertility rates that are below replacement level.
In contrast, low-income countries are projected to experience population growth but, at the same time, face increasing emigration due to disasters, crises, conflicts, and climate change. Currently, about 40% of the global population, equivalent to 3.5 billion people, reside in areas that are highly vulnerable to climate change, the report says.
As of mid-2022, there were 286 million people living outside their countries of birth, the World Bank estimated in a previous report. As high-income and some middle-income countries face aging populations, they will increasingly rely on migration, fighting for the available talent. To them, migration may turn into a factor for economic progress which could trigger a further increase in the number of migrants.
To achieve better results, the report recommends that policymakers align the skills of migrants with the needs of the destination countries to ensure that both sides benefit from migration. However, issues arise when migrants have weak skills match and are not refugees which can lead to deportation and put transit countries under pressure. To tackle this, the report suggests stronger international development efforts in origin countries to target migration-related issues that are prompted by economic distress.
The report also notes that migrants who lack citizenship face even tougher conditions and are therefore much more vulnerable. Their number amounts to a staggering 184 million people worldwide, equivalent to 2.3% of the global population.
Of these, 43% reside in low- and middle-income countries, while 40% are in high-income countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The remainder are in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Among the 184 million stateless people, 37 million are refugees, a figure that has tripled in the last decade. These individuals are particularly vulnerable as they do not always benefit from the same legal protection and rights as citizens and often face significant obstacles in accessing education, healthcare, and employment.
Source: World Bank
To facilitate the integration of migrants, the report recommends that origin countries should include labor migration as a key component of their development strategies. To achieve this, they should work towards reducing the cost of remittances, facilitating knowledge transfer from their diasporas abroad, and developing skills that are in demand globally. By doing so, they can help to alleviate the pressures of migration while simultaneously promoting economic growth and development.