While AI technologies promise to increase productivity and improve the output of certain occupations, they are also a threat for those positions at risk of automation. According to a report published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), high-skilled occupations have the lowest risk of automation by AI or other automation technologies and are expected to benefit from improved productivity thanks to these technologies. In contrast, however, low-skilled positions face the highest risk of automation.
ChatGPT, an example of a generative AI tool, has captured the attention of the international community since its launch by OpenAI in November 2022. As it has the capability to generate human-like responses to questions, to engage in real-life conversations, and to generate texts that are hard to differ from those generated by humans, it has sparked debate about the future of employment, business, and education.
See also: 5 jobs that Artificial Intelligence could soon replace
Over the last few years, AI-generative tools have evolved quite significantly and it has therefore become clear that, in certain cases, these tools promise to replace human work. The significance of AI generative tools is not only the potential to replace humans, but also the pace of development and the scale of the impact. AI is expected to touch almost every aspect of our lives. According to the latest publication from the OECD, “OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market“, AI has now already recorded remarkable progress in areas such as problem-solving, reasoning, and learning. Interestingly, AI has even outperformed humans in areas such as diplomacy, strategy board gaming, and building negotiations.
On the other hand, however, even though AI has already made significant progress in various non-routine and cognitive tasks, its capabilities are not the same across all occupations. According to the OECD publication, highly educated white-collar occupations, such as business professionals and managers, are more exposed to AI than less-skilled employees such as refuse workers and food preparation assistants.
Fig.1. Occupations with the highest exposure to AI: Average exposure to AI across countries by occupation
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market
However, exposure to AI will not necessarily mean job displacement. In terms of the risk of automation, high-skilled workers face the lowest risk as it is anticipated that they will adopt AI technologies to improve output and productivity. Conversely, low-skilled workers face a higher risk of automation by AI and other automation technologies with sectors such as construction and extraction, farming, fishing, and forestry being at the highest risk of automation. Meanwhile, community and social services, management, and educational instruction and libraries are expected to have the lowest risk.
Fig.2. Occupations most and least at risk of automation including AI and other technologies, 2021
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market
With regard to the risk of automation, some countries are expected to be more susceptible than others. For instance, countries with a high proportion of manufacturing, employment, and routine tasks will be more vulnerable to automation. According to the OECD publication, OECD member countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are at higher risk while other countries including Luxembourg, Great Britain, and Sweden face a lower risk of automation.
Fig.3. Share of employment in occupations at the highest risk of automation by country, 2019
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market
As the international community continues to follow the progress that AI is making and the opportunities it brings to the market, it is now time to initiate policies that can guarantee employment opportunities for the workforce of the future without damaging the progress of AI. According to the OECD report, policymakers need to encourage the productivity and job-reinstatement benefits of AI and undertake a review of skills policies to ensure that employees are able to efficiently complement AI technologies.
