Over one billion people may be exposed to coastal-specific hazards by 2050, with 216 million at risk of internal displacement, as the frequency and strength of climate-related disasters increase over time. The United Nations has indicated that 43% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be cut by 2030 to keep the world under the 1.5 °C global warming threshold.
Climate-related disasters have intensified over the few decades with weather patterns becoming more unpredictable and volatile. In 2023 alone, due to rising temperatures and longer heavy-rain seasons, mosquito-borne dengue fever has hit South Asia while Europe has been devastated by heatwaves and floods. This situation is not expected to change significantly in the near future as, according to a report published by the UN, countries have made only partial progress toward fighting climate change as set out under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
According to the report, 58% of global cumulative net CO2 emissions occurred in the period from 1850 to 1989, and 42% between 1990 and 2019. The UN projections reveal that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires a decline in global GHG emissions by about 43%, 60%, and 84% below the 2019 level by 2030, 2035, and 2050, respectively.
Fig.1. Projected emissions
Source: UNFCCC
Intensified global warming-related disasters, among other social, economic, and political issues, also trigger climate-related migration and displacement problems. Millions have been forced to move to live in other areas in their countries due to natural disasters in the last few decades. According to a study published recently by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, since 2008, more than 376 million people globally have been forcibly displaced because of natural disasters, with 98% being displaced due to weather-related hazards. In 2022 alone, this number reached 32.6 million.
The list of countries with the highest number of internal displacements is led by Pakistan where, in 2022, 8.2 million people were displaced because of disasters. The Philippines follows Pakistan with 5.5 million people being displaced, China with 3.6 million, India with 2.5 million, and Nigeria with 2.4 million. Overall, floods caused six out of 10 displacements in 2022.
Fig.2. Internal displacements due to disasters, 2013 – 2022
Source: Global Migration Data Portal
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has sounded the alarm with predictions that 1.2 billion people may be exposed to coastal-specific climate disasters due to climate change by 2050. According to the World Bank, if no urgent action is taken, 216 million people across six regions will be forced to move internally by the middle of the century.
“To keep 1.5 within reach, we must act with ‘ambition and urgency’ to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030. That is why the COP28 Presidency has put forward an ambitious action agenda centered around fast-tracking a just and well-managed energy transition that leaves no one behind, fixing climate finance, focusing on people’s lives and livelihoods, and underpinning everything with full inclusivity,” COP28 President-Designate Dr. Sultan Al Jaber said.
Fig.3. Projected internal displacement
Source: Global Migration Data Portal
