Climate change will “reshape health landscapes” over the next two decades, warns a report published by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in conjunction with the American management firm Oliver Wyman on the occasion, of this year’s WEF Davos conference. According to the document, climate change is “likely” to kill 14.5 million people by the year 2050 and result in $12.5 trillion in economic losses. Furthermore, healthcare systems might face $1.1 trillion in additional expenses to treat people impacted by changes in the climate.
An incoming tsunami of natural disasters
The WEF/Oliver Wyman report notes that increasingly powerful and more frequent floods, droughts, heat waves, tropical storms, wildfires, and rising sea levels are expected to lead to a global health crisis in the near future. If temperatures continue to warm, this could lead to an increase in the geographical range of mosquitos, which may lead to an expansion of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria, including in regions such as Europe and the United States, putting an estimated 500 million additional people at risk.
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However, of greatest concern to the report’s authors are floods, which are associated with the highest risk of climate-induced mortality. Out of the estimated 14.5 million deaths predicted to occur by the year 2050 due to climate change, 8.5 million will be as the result of flooding (mostly due to increased rainfall). In second place are droughts, which are anticipated to kill 3.2 million people by 2050. And out of the forecasted $12.5 trillion in climate-inducted economic losses, $7.1 trillion will be in the form of loss in productivity due to prolonged heat waves.
The link between climate change and human health
Strictly speaking, the rise in air temperatures of just 1.1 degrees (Celsius) since 1850 does not have any direct impact on human health. Instead, the threat to human health is primarily related to an increase in both the frequency and severity of natural disaster events, including heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and flooding (partly caused by rising sea levels).
The WEF acknowledges that the effects of industrial production will be felt over the remainder of the century, even if greenhouse gas emissions can successfully be curtailed in line with the Paris Agreement. Indeed, the authors of the report note that the existing 1.1-degree increase in global temperatures has already caused a number of “extreme” weather events, with the United States alone having spent more than $1 billion on natural disasters in 2023, including the wildfires on the Hawaiian island of Maui, flooding in Vermont, and heavy rainfalls in California.
Currently, about 40% of the global population lives within 100 kilometers (60 miles) of a coastline, and eight of the 10 most populous cities are on the coast, putting inhabitants at risk of health-related events due to rising sea levels and coastal hazards such as severe storms. Additionally, heat waves have already killed tens of thousands of people and have caused a considerable loss in health and productivity. In 2022, an estimated 62,000 people died in Europe as a result of heat waves during the summer.
Other impending health-related impacts from climate change include wildfires, which not only cause the destruction of property but also aggravate air pollution, which, in turn, exacerbates respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases, already a leading cause of death in many regions of the world. The WEF report estimates that as many as nine million people will be killed by air pollution by the year 2060.
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Many health-related outcomes from climate change, however, are only apparent months or even years after a natural disaster occurs. While an extreme weather event may lead to immediate effects such as physical injuries, malnutrition, and exposure to infectious diseases like cholera (as a result of drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated food), the stress, trauma, and sometimes physical displacement can lead to a host of mental health illnesses, including anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Solutions
Facing the prospect of millions of people’s health being adversely affected by climate change, the WEF report has proposed a number of solutions, including urging healthcare leaders to build “flexible infrastructures” now in anticipation of the upcoming increases in morbidity and mortality. Overall, the framework of increasing resistance, defined as the ability to prevent or reduce climate change’s impact on humans, as well as recovery, meaning a rapid and well-organized response to affected populations, is believed to be the best strategy to mitigate the health-related risks outlined in the report.
A number of specific steps were described in the report, including:
- Designing novel therapeutic techniques (especially drugs and vaccines) and diagnostic tools.
- Increasing disease surveillance and response capability.
- Innovation-driven healthcare research and development.
- Improving policy integration and coordination.
- Greater infrastructure resilience.
- Organizing public health campaigns similar to the efforts during the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Cooperating with social media and tech companies to provide crisis alerts as well as improved forecasting for extreme weather events.
- Enhancing efforts to reduce mosquito populations, including larvae control, the distribution of bed nets, and establishing early warning systems.
The WEF report’s authors strongly believe that innovative, tech-driven solutions are a key component to building resistance and recovery mechanisms ahead of the impending climate-inducted health crisis. Specifically, technology and legacy media are expected to play a big role both before and during extreme weather events, with early warning systems and alerts/notifications being a key component as well as “digital health campaigns” that distribute educational materials to affected populations.
In conjunction with high-tech solutions like warnings, alerts, and education, the WEF report’s authors are calling on governments to give pharmaceutical companies “sound economic incentives” and long-term sources of funding in order to induce them to engage in research to develop new medicines and vaccines to treat illnesses caused by climate change. This financial support is also of critical importance in order to avoid shortages of these novel therapeutic treatments, a problem that the authors acknowledge has been commonplace during past epidemics, including Covid-19.
Other solutions proposed for the healthcare industry include: new and improved drug delivery systems, improved diagnostics, and greater coverage for people seeking treatment for climate-related conditions such as heat-related diseases and infections, respiratory and cardiovascular ailments, and infectious diseases.
Last, but certainly not least, the WEF report calls on greater policy integration and coordination between governments, international organizations, and private sector entities in order to form a more coordinated global response to impending health issues as a result of climate change.
The stated goal of the WEF/Oliver Wyman report is to help both the public and private sector create more resilient communities by raising awareness of the size and scope of an impending climate-driven health crisis, however, the authors acknowledge that the recent COP28 Climate Change Conference resulted in pledges of only $1 billion from 120 nations in order to address health projects.
