The UAE is constantly in a condition of thirsty defiance. The harsh desert sun beats down on the land, and precious precipitation is a brief visitor, arriving in tiny amounts of 140 to 200 mm each year. Every drop matters in this dry landscape so the UAE, like many arid places, has turned to novel methods such as cloud seeding to extract more precipitation from the skies.
Meteorologists are expected to execute up to 300 cloud-seeding operations in the UAE in 2024 to increase rainfall and alleviate water scarcity. However, the search for this life-giving resource is not without its hurdles, with ethical and environmental concerns looming on the horizon.
A technological oasis, or a mirage?
Cloud seeding, the process of dispersing particles into the atmosphere to act as cloud condensation nuclei, aims to improve rainfall levels by creating rain-bearing clouds. The UAE has been at the forefront of this technology after launching the UAE Rain Enhancement Program in the late 1990s. This program boasts nearly 300 cloud-seeding missions being conducted annually, with estimates suggesting a potential increase in rainfall by 10-35%.
As the UAE’s total annual water needs are forecast to double by 2030, from 4.5 billion cubic meters to about 9 billion cubic meters, cloud seeding is seen by many as an important water provision tool. Adding to this are forecasts of an increasingly higher air temperature with experts predicting a rise of 1.5- 2°C by 2040.
How does it work?
To artificially generate rain, the UAE has put in place a several step mechanism. It uses a weather surveillance radar and live cameras in almost 30 locations to monitor the formation of clouds and the atmospheric pressure within them. Once the clouds have formed, a special aircraft flies around them to gather more information and, based on all this data, specialists determine the best solution for cloud seeding.
From this point on, the National Meteorology Center (NMC) can apply two methods of ‘seeding’ clouds which vary in terms of the transportation and material used. In the traditional approach, the NMC uses one of its four aircraft to shoot salt crystals into the clouds to trigger rainfall. In the second method, it uses its five ground generators that are based in mountainous areas to introduce seeding material into low clouds to accelerate the process of rain formation. In this second system, the NMC uses a special nano-material which it has described as “a breakthrough result” of its Research Programme for Rain Enhancement.
Environmental concerns and unforeseen consequences
Although the NMC has stated that no harmful chemicals are used in the process nevertheless experts are concerned about its safety.
Environmental expert Khaled Sulaiman applauds the UAE’s ingenuity but cautions against an overreliance on cloud seeding. He emphasizes the “potential environmental and ethical risks” associated with geoengineering solutions like cloud seeding and atmospheric interference. Sulaiman compares these interventions to powerful tools, urging careful consideration before wielding such influence over natural systems.
Sulaiman argues for a more long-term vision. He is skeptical about transient remedies such as artificial rain, emphasizing the possibility of “unintended consequences”. He explained, “Manipulating weather patterns may have unintended repercussions, disrupting delicate biological balances and cascading impacts across broad regions” which underlines the importance of international cooperation and strong governance frameworks to enable the appropriate development and application of these technologies.
The cloud seeding conundrum: Effectiveness and sustainability
Maysoon Zoubi, a water diplomacy expert, echoes these concerns while acknowledging the UAE’s desperate need for solutions. She delves into the limitations of cloud seeding itself and acknowledges it is a complex and expensive technique with a success rate that is not guaranteed. While it can potentially increase water availability, Zoubi stresses that cloud seeding is not a cure for drought.
Furthermore, Zoubi does not rule out that the chemicals used in cloud seeding could raise concerns about their environmental impact.
“These interventions could have unforeseen consequences for plants, animals, and soil health, disrupting the already precarious desert ecosystem.”
Zoubi highlights the need for comprehensive studies to assess the true impact of artificial rain on water resources, the environment, and local communities.
Sulaiman and Zoubi both champion a comprehensive approach to combat water scarcity in the UAE. While cloud seeding may offer a temporary solution, it is not a panacea. Sustainable remedies demand that the underlying causes of water scarcity be addressed. This entails implementing conservation measures, investing in alternative water sources such as desalination, and researching drought-resistant crops. These multifaceted initiatives are the fundamental components of a resilient long-term strategy.
