Fertility rates have significantly changed since 1950 with a downward trend being observed in almost all countries and territories. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has plummeted dramatically from over 4.8 births per female in 1950 to about 2.2 in 2021, according to an analysis of global fertility in 204 countries and territories. Forecasts indicate a further decrease with the TFR estimated to be 1.8 and 1.6 in the reference scenario for 2050 and 2100, respectively, with developed countries expected to witness the highest decrease.
Fig.1. TFR, globally and by GBD super-region, 1950–2100
Source: Global fertility in 204 countries and territories
Global demographic divide
The world’s fertility rate data shows an uneven distribution in regions which is referred to as the global demographic divide. In high-income countries, birth rates have generally fallen below 2.1 births per woman which is the acceptable replacement level (the number of babies that must be born to prevent a decrease in the number of people in a community). On the other hand, low-income countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, like Pakistan, continue to experience relatively high fertility rates, varying between 4.29 and 3.22 respectively. Therefore, the population in these areas is on average younger and has a higher rate of individuals who on in their reproductive years.
Fig.2. TFR by country or territory, 1950 vs 2021 (A) and 2021 vs 2100 (B)
Source: Global fertility in 204 countries and territories
The projected trends are rather pessimistic with only 6 of the 204 countries analyzed (Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan) being expected to have above-replacement fertility levels by 2100, and just 26 expected to maintain a positive rate of natural increase.
The picture becomes even gloomier as the study’s authors forecast that the Global CCF50, representing the average number of female children born per woman over her lifetime, is projected to decrease from 3.59 (95% UI 3.52–3.66) for females born in 1950 to 1.64 (1.33–1.97) for those born in 2050 who will have transitioned out of their reproductive years by 2100.
Fig.3. TFR by country or territory, 1950 vs 2021 (A) and 2021 vs 2100 (B)
Source: Global fertility in 204 countries and territories
Changing distribution of live births
The analysis highlights a notable shift in the distribution of live births worldwide, with low-income countries being estimated to record an increase in the proportion of total births by the year 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to witness a notable rise in the proportion of live births, surpassing 54% of the global total. Such a demographic transition poses challenges, particularly in areas that are prone to climate change, unrest, and also scarce resources. Over 70% of global live births are predicted to occur in low-income and lower-middle-income regions by 2100, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and putting a strain on healthcare systems.
Fig.4. Share of live births by 2021 World Bank income group
Source: Global fertility in 204 countries and territories
Recommendations
To prevent a drastic decline in fertility rates, the analysis highlights the need for policy to counteract declining labor force participation. These nations often experience problems related to aging populations and an increasing strain on social welfare systems. Responses such as pro-natal initiatives and investment in education, and expanding access to education and contraceptives emerge as a key strategy to mitigate high fertility rates in low-income countries, whereas pro-natal measures that are designed to encourage fertility in low-fertility contexts could bring about some moderate improvement in fertility rates. By empowering women with education and reproductive choices, these interventions will not only contribute to lower fertility rates but also promote gender equality, increase maternal and child health outcomes, and enable economic empowerment, the report’s authors note.
The world’s population reached 8 billion in 2022, which is three times greater than in 1950 when it stood at 2.5 billion. In 2022, the UN predicted that this might further grow to 9.7 billion in 2050 and to about 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. However, the effectiveness of any policies put in place could be questioned, and caution is warranted to ensure they respect individual reproductive rights and avoid coercive measures.
