A new study has identified the 10 countries in Eastern Europe facing the biggest economic harm from future temperature rises – and COP29 host Azerbaijan tops the list.
The findings, published by Christian Aid in conjunction with economists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, chart the reduction in future GDP of the top 10 most impacted countries in the region under two scenarios. The first is if the world delivers current national climate pledges, known as NDCs (which are projected to result in global heating of around 2.8C). The second scenario is if global heating is allowed to reach 2C.
Javid Gara, environmental activist and founder of Ecofront Azerbaijan, said: “Azerbaijan is facing the impact of the climate crisis on many fronts. More frequent and severe droughts make traditional farming more challenging. Especially in mountainous areas where communities rely on animal farming, it is problematic since they don’t have many options to diversify their farming activities. This accelerates migration from these villages. Droughts are creating severe water scarcity problems for local communities and small farmers, especially in downstream areas of the Kur River. Reduced snowfall and overall water scarcity increase demand for costly infrastructure upgrades and construction of new reservoirs. The retreating Caspian Sea threatens the shipping industry which is the only access to the oceans of the world. This could require costly adjustments to infrastructure.”
The report, Baking Baku: The economic impact of climate change on Eastern Europe, shows that in the current NDC scenario, Azerbaijan faces an alarming reduction in future GDP of 8.5% by 2050 and a reduction of 12.6% by 2070. If the temperature rise reaches 2C it will suffer less harm but still more than a 6% reduction in GDP in both 2050 and 2070.
Azerbaijan is one of Europe’s major fossil fuel producers yet has been singled out as one of the very few countries in the world to weaken their NDC in contravention of the Paris Agreement’s Article 4.3 which says each NDC will be more ambitious than the previous one. Last month Climate Action Tracker assessed Azerbaijan’s climate policies as “critically insufficient”.
It said: “Azerbaijan appears to have abandoned its 2030 emissions target, moving backward instead of forward on climate action. Its renewable energy targets remain weak.”
Among the climate impacts facing the region are hotter temperatures, especially in the summer, drought, forest fires, and more erratic precipitation leading to severe flooding. These will negatively impact agriculture, food security, tourism, and human health and could lead to increased tensions over water supplies.
Mariana Paoli, Christian Aid’s Global Advocacy Lead, said: “The COP president has a crucial role in overseeing the negotiations and securing an ambitious agreement, including pushing developed countries to do what needs to be done to successfully tackle the climate crisis. This report shows that he will also be working to protect his own country’s economic future. Azerbaijan has a sorry record on climate change. By brokering the negotiations, Azerbaijan should lead by example and move from exacerbating the climate crisis to being part of the solution. This has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’. It’s vital that developed countries agree to deliver new climate finance, largely based on grants, to help vulnerable countries adapt to the impacts of climate change and fund their energy transition from dirty fossil fuels to clean renewables.”
In Azerbaijan specifically, a World Bank report from 2023, warned Azerbaijan’s key agriculture sector will soon be constrained by more frequent and severe adverse climate impacts while Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea, the world’s largest lake, is also coming under pressure from climate change.
The other countries in Eastern Europe facing the most severe GDP hit due to climate change are Montenegro, Albania, Croatia, Georgia, Serbia, Hungary, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
