Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 3.4% in 2024 from 2023 levels, a recent report by climate think-tank Agora has highlighted. Although the country failed to stay within its annual cap, the decrease does aid progress towards its 2030 goals.
Driven by the increased adoption of renewable energy and efficiency measures as well as a stagnating economy, the decrease in greenhouse gas emissions totaled 656 million tonnes of CO2. However, this falls short of the legally stipulated cap of 693 million tonnes in 2024. Nevertheless, progress remains in line with Germany’s Federal Climate Change Act, which targets the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65% by 2030 and by 88% by 2040 from 1990 levels.
One key factor driving the current decrease is the robust investment in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar which accounted for approximately 54% of Germany’s electricity consumption in 2024. This shift significantly reduced reliance on fossil fuels.
An economic slowdown led to reduced industrial activity which also contributed to lower emissions. Unusually mild weather also decreased energy demand for heating, bolstering the overall decline in emissions.
In 2023, Sven Giegold, State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, commented that for the first time, Germany is on schedule to meet its overall national climate objectives.
However, environmental experts warn that the short-term reductions may not guarantee long-term sustainability because challenges such as fluctuations in energy demand and industrial outputs as well as policy consistency could determine whether these gains can be sustained or are merely temporary.
A special report produced by the Council of Experts on Climate Change indicates that, based on current measures, Germany is at risk of not meeting its 2021-2030 climate targets, mainly due to four factors:
In the transport sector, emissions increased by 3% between 2021 and 2023 rather than decreasing, and although 2024 witnessed a modest drop in emissions, this still fell short of the annual forecast.
Experts have pointed out that despite incentives, the shift to electric cars is slow, with persistent reliance on fossil fuel-powered transport. Despite there being 2 million electric vehicles (EVs) on German roads in 2023, the share of new EV registrations is far below the 50-60% required by 2026 to align with climate goals.
The building sector is also making very little progress with the energy efficiency renovation rate still below 1% per year. For climate targets to be met, this rate has to be at least 2%. In Germany, individual houses account for roughly 40% of the country’s CO₂ emissions, since half of homes still use fossil fuels (gas and oil) for heating and energy-efficiency improvements such as insulation remain expensive and time-consuming to install.
The energy sector has made the most progress, with emissions declining by 17% between 2021 and 2023. However, coal-fired power plants still produced over 170 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2023, accounting for more than 40% of the energy sector’s emissions. Steel production, responsible for 30 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, still relies heavily on coal, and only one major green hydrogen-based steel project, ArcelorMittal Bremen, has begun construction.
Germany’s reliance on fossil fuels remains a major issue. While renewables represented 52% of electricity generation in 2023, natural gas still accounted for 24%, and coal for 27%. Industrial consumption of gas fell in 2022 due to high prices but rebounded in 2024.
The growth rate of renewable energy sources, particularly onshore wind, remains well below the required levels. In 2023, only 3.5 GW of new wind capacity was added, whereas at least 6 GW per year is needed to meet the 2030 targets.
Global economic and political shifts are further complicating Germany’s climate transition. Trade disruptions have affected key climate projects, for example, delays in semiconductor shipments have impacted EV production, while rare earth supply chain issues have slowed down wind turbine manufacturing. The US Inflation Reduction Act, which provides US$369 billion in clean energy subsidies, has also diverted investments away from Europe.
With these challenges, experts argue that Germany is unlikely to meet its 2030 target of reducing emissions by 65% compared to 1990 levels. They point out that without rapid reforms in transport, industry, and energy, the country risks having to buy expensive carbon credits from other EU nations to compensate for its failure to meet legal obligations under the Effort Sharing Regulation.
