Global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The WMO report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.
There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. The report does not give global predictions for individual years.
There is a forecast 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C, according to the report. This is up from 47% in last year’s report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32% in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period.
Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.
Other key points:
- Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) is predicted to be more than three and a half times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020).
- Predictions of sea ice for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
- Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 baseline, suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions for this season over the Amazon.
- Recent years, apart from 2023, in the South Asian region have been wetter than average, and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period. This may not be the case for all individual seasons in this period.
The update is produced by the UK’s Met Office as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides a synthesis of predictions from WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres. It is one of a suite of WMO products which provide scientific monitoring and predictions of our climate to inform decision-making.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet. Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
The 1.5°C (and 2.0°C) level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to the long-term level of warming inferred from global temperatures, typically over 20 years. Temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperature approaches the level.
WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 report, released in March confirmed that 2024 was likely the first calendar year to be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average. It was the warmest year in the 175-year observational record.
The current level of warming already drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
This year’s UN climate change conference, COP30, will consider updated climate action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions, which are crucial for achieving the Paris Agreement goals.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines future global warming levels in terms of a 20-year mean. The WMO State of the Global Climate 2024 report presented three methods for estimating the current global warming level, with central estimates ranging from 1.34°C to 1.41°C compared to the 1850-1900 baseline based on a range of methods – although it noted the uncertainty ranges in global temperature statistics and reported a 90% confidence range spanning 1.1–1.7°C.
This latest decadal climate forecast predicts that the central estimate of the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44°C, (with a 90% confidence range of 1.22–1.54°C). A WMO team of international experts is considering all of these estimates in order to ensure consistent, reliable and timely tracking of long-term global temperature changes.
