The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecast for developing countries in Asia and the Pacific, pointing to weaker demand and growing trade risks. In its July 2025 Asian Development Outlook, the Bank predicts the region will grow by 4.7% this year — down slightly from an earlier estimate of 4.9%. Next year’s forecast drops to 4.6%.
The adjustment comes as the global trading environment gets tougher. Higher U.S. tariffs and uncertainty around global demand are putting pressure on exports, while slower consumer spending at home adds to the strain. The ADB warns that if trade disputes grow or energy prices spike, the outlook could worsen further.
“Asia and the Pacific has handled many challenges this year, but the outside pressures are still strong,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. “Countries need to keep building stable economies and stay connected through trade and cooperation.”
Projections for China and India — the region’s largest markets — remain mostly steady. China is expected to grow 4.7% this year, helped by government support for spending and industry. India is set to grow by 6.5%, slightly lower than earlier projections due to weaker exports and investment.
The report notes that Southeast Asia will likely feel the slowdown the most, while Central Asia could benefit from higher oil production. Inflation across the region is easing, thanks to lower fuel prices and strong farm output.
