Artificial intelligence could increase cross-border trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 through productivity gains and lower trade costs, but only if governments bridge digital divides and invest in workforce skills, according to a press-release by the World Trade Organization, announcing the launch of 2025 World Trade Report. The flagship publication projects global trade rising 34-37% across different scenarios based on varying degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle-, and high-income economies. Global GDP could see 12-13% increases, while trade helps economies access AI-enabling goods like semiconductors and raw materials worth $2.3 trillion in 2023.
Access to AI technologies and digital trade capacity remains highly uneven across countries. Low- and middle-income economies that narrow their digital infrastructure gap with rich countries by 50% could see incomes rise 15% and 14% respectively through wider AI adoption. However, trade restrictions on AI-related goods have jumped from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven mainly by high- and upper middle-income economies.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned about uneven access in her report foreword. “AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” she said.
The organization provides a forum for members to discuss AI-related trade measures, with 80 specific trade concerns already raised about AI issues.
The report emphasizes that open and predictable trade policies are essential, noting that bound tariffs on AI goods reach up to 45% in some low-income countries. Investing in education, training, and labor market policies can prevent inequality from widening within economies as AI spreads.
