Africa contributes 2-3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet it is the most climate-vulnerable continent. Home to 1.5 billion people, or 17% of the world’s population, it bears a disproportionate share of climate change. Each year, on average, African countries lose 2-5% of their gross domestic product to natural disasters such as droughts and flooding and are forced to redirect 9% of their national budgets to cope with these climate extremes, according to a 2023 World Meteorological Organization report.
Rising emissions
On a per capita basis, Africa emits the lowest amount of carbon dioxide of any continent – just 0.8 to 1 metric ton per person compared to a global average of over 4 metric tons per capita. But as population grows and countries continue to industrialize, the continent’s carbon footprint is increasingly being driven by energy demands, much of which are met by fossil fuels in cities and wood fuel in rural areas.
The result is a steep rise in emissions. Africa’s carbon emissions rose from 450 million metric tons in 1980 to 1,309 million metric tons in 2021, a 191% increase in four decades. While still modest in global terms, this increase underscores the tension between development needs and climate goals.
Highest deforestation rate
As the carbon footprint rises, the continent also faces the world’s highest annual deforestation rates. Its forests, covering over 624 million hectares or 20.6% of Africa’s land area, represent 15.6% of the global forest cover. They are vital carbon sinks, but they are being cleared at an alarming pace to make way for agriculture, mining, and new settlements.
From 2010 to 2020, Africa lost 3.94 million hectares of forest annually, according to a 2022 report by the African Forestry and Wildlife Commission. The Congo Basin tropical forests, dubbed the ‘lungs of Africa’, sequester 40 gigatons of carbon each year, according to a State of Forests 2021 report. But if the current deforestation rates continue, 27% of these forests may disappear by 2050, the Central Africa Forest Observatory has warned.
To name just two cases:
- In the Democratic Republic of Congo, cobalt mining for lithium to manufacture clean-energy electric cars destroyed 13000 hectares of forest from 2001 to 2020, according to the World Resources Institute. Cobalt mining contributes 1.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.
- In West Africa, the forest cover of 84 million hectares shrank by 52,920 hectares every year from 2010 to 2020 due to excessive exploitation and weak governance.
Deforestation overlooked in climate change discussions
Global climate change discussions often emphasize the responsibility of developed countries’ CO2 emissions for Africa’s suffering, but less focus is paid to deforestation in Africa and its role in the rising carbon footprint.
Research by Climate Funds Update shows deforestation accounts for 12-20% of global greenhouse gas emissions. A 2025 study published on Science Direct found that in the last two decades, 77.36% of African countries have experienced more forest losses than gains. The combined loss of 32,000,000 hectares of forests in these countries resulted in 15.73 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions.
Timber demand vs reforestation
According to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report, demand for wood globally is expected to increase by 37% by 2050. Asia, particularly China, is expected to have a rising demand for African timber, while Europe has enforced stricter sustainability standards, according to the State of Forests 2021 report.
This shift has profound implications for Africa, where illegal logging already costs the continent US$17 billion annually, driven by the high demand for African hardwood. With less robust regulations, Asian markets are expected to be the main destination for African timber.
Despite the daunting losses, African countries are nevertheless pursuing reforestation initiatives. The FAO reports that 34 countries have committed to restoring 100 million acres of deforested and degraded land by 2030.
Yet the reliance on wood still remains stubbornly high. In some regions, 61% to 86% of primary energy needs are still being met by the use of firewood, particularly for cooking. This dependence locks households into a cycle of deforestation and makes restoration efforts difficult to sustain.
Battle over fossil fuel finance
Africa’s energy demands are expected to double by 2040, and fossil fuels remain the most easily available option to meet this. According to a climate action tracker report, natural gas could drive a 70% increase in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 if current policies remain in place.
While critics deem the stance to be unfair and impractical, some Western governments and financial institutions argue that halting fossil fuel emissions in Africa is vital to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Achieving this may include halting fresh investments in natural gas exploration and generation, but for a continent that is continuing to develop and has a growing population, that is impractical, according to Todd Moss, Energy for Growth Hub executive director, and the director for energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute.
In a 2021 opinion piece published by the Foreign Policy Magazine, Todd Moss and Vijaya Ramachandran of the Breakthrough Institute argued that blocking fossil finance for Africa would amount to “hypocrisy”.
“While barring public finance for oil and gas projects in other countries, Britain continues to subsidize its own fossil industry, while the United States – already the world’s biggest oil producer –plans to increase its own domestic production. But even if we ignore Western hypocrisy and take their promises of rapid carbon reduction at face value, is there any rational reason to worry about African nations blowing up the world’s carbon budget? A closer look suggests no,” they commented.
Africa’s oil and gas projects under fire
Similar tensions are visible in debates over specific projects. Bill McKibben, an American environmentalist and founder of activist group 350.org, has condemned the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project in Uganda and Tanzania as “petro-colonialism”, in a continent that suffers the most from the climate crisis. The 1,443-kilometre-long pipeline would transport 210,000 barrels of crude oil daily.
For their part, Moss and Ramachandran countered that Uganda is one of the world’s poorest countries, whose people experience chronic energy shortages. Moreover, it contributes a mere 0.016% of the global emissions. They pointed out that the EACOP pipeline’s capacity is equivalent to 0.014% of the U.S. crude oil output.
“The reality is that the global carbon problem is still very much caused by the rich countries plus China. Africa’s economic and energy ambitions are not going to ruin the West’s climate plans. Cutting off financing for gas to the world’s poorest nations is unfair and inhumane. Justifying such policies based on irrational and factually incorrect fears of Africa’s carbon future is wrong. Western climate policy must stop blaming the victims,” Moss and Ramachandran argued.
They went further, calling such policies a form of “environmental racism” since it almost exclusively affects African people.
Global regulations and African realities
The European Union (EU) has responded to global deforestation with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which is set to come into force on 30 December 2025. It will require products such as furniture, rubber, beef and chocolate that are sold in the EU to be sourced sustainably and not to have contributed to forest degradation, or deforestation anywhere in the world.
African environmental groups have welcomed the regulation, but warned of certain unintended consequences. Abraham Baffoe, ProForest Africa’s regional director, argued in African Business magazine that without engaging African farmers, the regulation could worsen rural poverty. He added that the EUDR could lock African farmers out of EU markets.
Africa at a crossroads
No matter how it is put, Africa’s climate paradox is stark: the continent emits little but suffers most, and while it needs development, that very process risks intensifying deforestation and rising emissions. Africa does need a path to meet its people’s needs and protect its forests – the very lungs of the planet.
