A quiet storm is brewing within the United Nations. The Secretary-General’s UN80 reform blueprint, unveiled in September, proposed “to sunset UNAIDS by the end of 2026”, effectively announcing the closure of the agency that has coordinated the global HIV response since 1996.
However, UNAIDS’ own governing body has charted a different path that directly clashes with this proposal. Last June, its board endorsed a five-year, two-phased transition plan with the second phase due to be approved in June 2027.
Reaffirmation amid uncertainty
Sophie Barton, UNAIDS’ Global Communications Manager, told DevelopmentAid that the agency is pressing ahead with the “two-phased transformation plan”.
“The first one is immediate and is seeing a reduction of UNAIDS Secretariat staff by more than 50%, cutting the number of lead cosponsors from 11 to 6 and reducing the UNAIDS country footprint from 84 countries to 54 countries.”
She added that the plan:
“was decided by the Program Coordinating Board (PCB), affirmed by United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)[…] and received strong and overwhelming support from donors, program countries and civil society.”
Moreover, on 8 October, the UNAIDS Board, composed of 22 member states, reconfirmed the two-phase transition plan while approving the agency’s budget for 2026.
A crisis driven by funding gaps
The reform debate is unfolding against a deepening financial strain. UNAIDS relies almost entirely on voluntary contributions from governments and donors, leaving it vulnerable to shifting political and fiscal priorities.
For 2025, the agency revised its core operating budget down to US$150 million, after its largest donor, the United States, announced cuts to foreign assistance, creating a projected shortfall of about US$82 million from its full funding targets. In 2024, the U.S. contributed US$111 million, 49% of the agency’s total budget.
Following these cuts, UNAIDS warned that if the funding gap is not closed, an additional 4.2 million people could die of AIDS-related illnesses over the next four years, while 3.4 million children could be orphaned and 6.6 million people newly infected.
What the transition looks like
According to UNAIDS’ statement, the first phase of the agency’s transition is already underway. It includes a 55% reduction in Secretariat staff from 661 to 294, shrinking operations from 85 to 54 countries, and downsizing the Geneva headquarters by over 80%. Regional hubs in Nairobi, Johannesburg, and Bangkok will now take on a bigger role in providing operational and technical support.
Phase Two, expected to be agreed upon by June 2027, could see further mergers, transfers to co-sponsors, and integration with regional institutions such as the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, eventually leading to the closure of the Secretariat in its current form.
“The Board has asked for regular updates on the implementation of the new operating model every six months,” Barton told DevelopmentAid, describing the process as a “continuous transformation aligned with the UN80 efforts.”
Civil society pushback
The prospect of a 2026 closure has alarmed civil society. The UNAIDS NGO Delegation, representing communities affected by HIV on the Board, has branded the move “profoundly dangerous and premature”.
In a recent statement, the delegation urged all PCB member states and observers to oppose the closure, arguing that the global HIV response remains fragile and that dismantling UNAIDS too early could reverse critical progress in controlling the epidemic.
Looking ahead
The fate of UNAIDS will hinge on whether the UN80 reform can accommodate a gradual, board-led transition rather than an abrupt closure. Meanwhile, the agency remains focused on key deliverables for 2026: a new Global AIDS Strategy (2026–2031) and negotiations for a political declaration committing states to ending AIDS by 2030.
“UN support to the global AIDS response will continue,” Barton affirmed. “We remain committed to the goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.”
By the end of 2023, UNAIDS has helped drive significant progress in the global HIV response. Of the 39.9 million people living with HIV, 30.7 million were on treatment – a four-fold increase since 2010. During this time, AIDS-related deaths were cut by 50%, whereas new infections among children fell by 62%.
