Climate variability is increasingly shaping how renewable energy systems perform around the world. A new “2024 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand” report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) shows that 2024—the warmest year on record—brought major regional shifts in solar, wind, and hydropower potential, along with a 4 percent jump in global energy demand compared to the 1991–2020 average. These changes are happening as global renewable capacity topped 4,400 gigawatts, amplifying the interaction between climate conditions and energy systems.
The findings stress the need to integrate climate intelligence into energy planning as countries work to meet the COP28 UAE Consensus goal of tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. “Climate variability is no longer a background consideration for the energy sector—it is a defining operational factor,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. As renewable systems expand, their performance increasingly depends on heat extremes, rainfall patterns, and shifting atmospheric conditions.
The report tracks four key indicators: wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy, and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy. In 2024, residual El Niño conditions, record ocean heat, and long-term warming produced strong regional contrasts. Southern Africa saw wind capacity factors increase by around 8 to 16 percent and solar by 2 to 6 percent, but hydropower stayed below average for the third straight year while energy demand hit record highs. South Asia faced deficits in wind and solar performance alongside sharply rising cooling demand, with monthly anomalies reaching around 16 percent in October.
For the first time, the report evaluates the skill of seasonal climate forecasts for energy indicators. Results show forecasts—particularly from the ECMWF system—can successfully anticipate regional anomalies in solar energy potential and electricity demand months ahead. Forecasts issued in early summer 2024 correctly predicted unusually high energy demand and below-average solar performance across large parts of Africa. This kind of early warning can help with load management, reservoir operations, infrastructure scheduling, and cross-border electricity trade.
Francesco La Camera, IRENA’s Director-General, said understanding climate variability is critical for making smart investment decisions and ensuring that rapidly growing renewable capacity delivers reliable power under real-world conditions. “The global energy transition is unstoppable but must be grounded in climate reality,” he said. The report recommends strengthening climate-informed energy planning by improving data systems, expanding regional climate services and early warnings, mainstreaming seasonal forecasts, and designing climate-resilient energy targets aligned with the Paris Agreement.
