The beginning of 2026 was marked by geopolitical tension. On January 3, the U.S. Delta Force seized the Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife from the presidential residence in Caracas. Both are currently being held in federal custody in New York, where Maduro faces charges of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. What has been justified by the U.S. as an intervention to “combat narco-terrorism” is debated by many to be a dangerous move and a precedent that could carry serious repercussions for sovereignty and peace around the world. Does this event bring freedom to the Venezuelan people, or is it a strategy by the U.S. Administration to get closer to the South American country’s largest-in-the-world oil resources? What will be the impact of this on global stability? Check out some Experts’ Opinions below.
Key Takeaways:
- Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured on Saturday, January 3, 2026, in a U.S. military operation carried out in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. Maduro and his wife are currently being held in New York, where Maduro faces a series of charges related to drug trafficking.
- According to some experts, the U.S. operation undermines the UN Charter and may normalize unilateral interventions by claiming to be justified by security or governance narratives.
- From an economic perspective, such actions are likely to increase oil price volatility in the short term due to uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil production, infrastructure security, and sanctions.
- In the longer term, the successful rehabilitation of Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. could slightly reduce Russia’s influence on European energy markets.
DevelopmentAid: How will the U.S. intervention in Venezuela impact global norms on sovereignty and international law?
“The U.S. intervention in Venezuela is reshaping global norms on sovereignty and international law, including its challenge to the strict prohibition on force under the UN Charter, the testing of boundaries between law enforcement and regime change, the highlighting of geopolitical divisions in interpreting legal norms, and the increased concerns among smaller states about conditional sovereignty.”
“The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela to apprehend Nicolás Maduro signifies a shift towards what could be described as “unilateral law enforcement” and challenge accepted norms of state sovereignty. By sidestepping the UN Security Council, this action echoes elements of the Monroe Doctrine by prioritizing regional stability and security over the UN Charter’s principle of non-intervention. This establishes a destabilizing precedent that could legitimize similar unilateral action by other global powers.”
“The reported U.S. military intervention in Venezuela poses a significant challenge to established norms of sovereignty and international law. Direct military action without explicit UN Security Council authorization risks undermining the UN Charter and could normalize unilateral interventions by claiming to be justified by security or governance narratives, setting a worrying global precedent. ” The views expressed are the author’s personal opinions and do not represent the views of the United Nations or UNDSS.
DevelopmentAid: How could U.S. actions in Venezuela affect global oil markets, particularly in terms of price volatility and supply stability?
“The long-term impact may be a more fragmented international legal order, with weakened collective enforcement of sovereignty and a resurgence of power-based diplomacy. In the short-term, Asian buyers, especially China and India, that have been major importers of discounted Venezuelan crude oil under sanctions-era arrangements, may face uncertainty. Any disruption – naval enforcement, legal uncertainty, or payment restrictions – will create immediate anxiety. Asian refiners may need to switch to alternatives such as Russian or Middle Eastern medium crude oil, which could increase costs and spot-market volatility. If a U.S.-backed government reorients exports toward Western markets, Asian buyers could lose access to discounted barrels. Many Asian refiners are configured for medium-to-heavy crude. Losing the Venezuelan supply could compress margins unless alternatives are found.”
“Economically, Venezuela’s direct influence on global oil markets remains limited. Despite possessing the world’s largest proven reserves, current production accounts for less than 1% of global supply. Market reactions, therefore, reflect increased geopolitical risk rather than immediate shortages.”
“From an economic perspective, such actions are likely to increase oil price volatility in the short term due to uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan production, infrastructure security, and sanctions. Any disruption could further strain an already sensitive global energy market.” The views expressed are the author’s personal opinions and do not represent the views of the United Nations or UNDSS.
DevelopmentAid: What short-term humanitarian consequences do you predict for the Venezuelan people, particularly in terms of displacement, health, and access to services?
“Even if the U.S. actions are limited in scope or framed as targeted, the short-term humanitarian consequences for Venezuelan civilians are likely to be negative, driven by heightened uncertainty, disrupted economic and service systems, and the reduced coping capacity of already vulnerable populations.”
“Reports indicate some Venezuelans and diaspora support the intervention due to alleged repression, human rights abuse, and economic decline. They see humanitarian hardship and the lack of domestic solutions as a moral, although legally disputed, justification, making it the strongest normative argument for intervention.”
“The humanitarian impacts may be immediate and severe, including civilian displacement, the disruption of health services, and reduced access to basic necessities, particularly in conflict-affected and oil-producing regions.” The views expressed are the author’s personal opinions and do not represent the views of the United Nations or UNDSS.
DevelopmentAid: How might the possible shifts in Venezuelan oil production affect Russia’s influence over global energy markets, and what implications could this have for Europe’s energy security?
“A meaningful recovery in Venezuelan oil production would not replace Russian energy for Europe, but it would erode Russia’s global pricing power and geopolitical leverage, indirectly strengthening Europe’s energy security as it transitions away from dependency altogether.”
“In the longer term, the successful rehabilitation of Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. could slightly reduce Russia’s influence on European energy markets. The humanitarian risks remain acute, as disruptions to utilities and supply chains increase the likelihood of displacement into Colombia and Brazil, suggesting that short-term civilian costs may outweigh the near-term political gains.”
“Geopolitically, shifts in Venezuelan oil output could marginally weaken Russia’s influence in global energy markets. For Europe, this may offer limited diversification opportunities, but it reinforces the need for long-term energy security strategies beyond conflict-driven supply changes.” The views expressed are the author’s personal opinions and do not represent the views of the United Nations or UNDSS.
See also: The international development sector in review: 2025 insights and the path ahead | Experts’ Opinions
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