5 key reasons to read the article
- Africa’s water battles could spark international conflict over rivers that have shaped civilizations for centuries.
- Scarce water resources have become high-stakes battlefields for millions.
- Terrorist groups and armed factions are exploiting water sources and turning this basic human need into a tool of power and control.
- Water supply mega-projects promise solutions. But could they further inflame tensions?
- If nothing changes, Africa could face 1,000 water-related conflicts every year by 2050, a crisis that may have global consequences.
Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam was inaugurated in Ethiopia in September 2025. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with a power capacity of 5,150 megawatts, was built on the Blue Nile. This prompted immediate diplomatic tension as over 80% of the Nile’s waters flow into Egypt with the country filing a complaint with the United Nations Security Council calling GERD an unlawful “colossal obstacle” that violated the country’s sovereignty, weakened its water security and undermined regional stability. Meanwhile, Ethiopia defended the project, stating that it fulfilled the aspirations of generations for development along the Blue Nile, and encouraged other riparian countries to pursue similar initiatives.
The dispute illustrates a greater reality. In Africa, water is no longer simply a resource; it is a vulnerability and an increasingly major source of conflict.
Water security in 2026: Beyond access and sanitation
According to UN-Water, water security is the ability of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of safe water to support livelihoods, human well-being, socio-economic development, and environmental protection, while maintaining peace and stability.
In 2026, water security in Africa extends beyond access. It underpins agriculture, energy, industry, political stability and national security. It therefore affects food production, power generation and the ability to prevent conflicts, particularly in the continent’s least secure countries of Somalia, Chad and Niger.
Of the 54 African countries, only 13 have achieved a modest level of water security, a 2022 report by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health revealed.
Water as a source of conflict
In 2023, there were 56 water-related conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa whereas in 2024 this number surged to 76, according to a 2025 Pacific Institute report. The conflicts, exacerbated by the effects of climate change such as droughts, contribute to regional insecurity.
Around Lake Chad, terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and Islamic State – West Africa Province control water points in order to dominate communities and recruit fighters. According to Hamad Al Hosani, a political Islam researcher, terrorists entice recruits with their ideology and finances, triggering conflicts that displace millions of people across borders.
Between 2023 and 2024, security incidents within the Lake Chad basin rose by 23%, more so in Cameroon and Nigeria, UN-OCHA reported. Almost 4 million people were displaced in the Sahel region in October 2025 due to a combination of conflicts, hunger, and climate change, according to the UN.
“Climate-related shocks further amplify risks, intensifying competition over scarce natural resources such as land and water,” explained Abdouraouf Gnon-Kondé, UNHCR’s regional director for West and Central Africa.
Agriculture badly hit
Agriculture remains the backbone of most African economies, employing 65% to 70% of the continent’s labor force, while more than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas where farming is the main source of income, according to the World Bank. This makes water scarcity not just an environmental threat, but a direct assault on livelihoods and social stability.
As climate change tightens its grip, with the Sahel region recording temperatures that are rising 1.5 times faster than the rest of the world, farming across large parts of Africa is set to become increasingly difficult. A Center for Global Development 2024 study reported that from 2050, water scarcity due to climate change will possibly result in crop revenue losses of about 30% and increase poverty by 20% to 30%.
Closing that gap will require massive investment. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Africa will have to spend between US$30 billion to US$50 billion every year just to adapt to climate change with much of this being channeled to water management and climate-resilient agriculture.
Major projects boosting water security
Around Africa, governments and intergovernmental organizations are investing in water infrastructure and related development projects.
- The Mission 300 Project aims to connect 300 million people to electricity by 2030 and support water security by powering water infrastructure.
- The Zanzibar Water Investment Program, launched in 202,2 is expected to mobilize US$665.5 million to fund the provision of a clean, secur,e and sustainable water supply for Zanzibar’s over 1.8 million residents by 2027.
- Zambezi Region Nature, People, and Climate (NPC) Investment Plan approved US$60.35 million in 2025 and needs an additional US$703.39 million over the next five years to restore forests and improve climate resilience across eight countries.
- Grand Inga Dam Project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is estimated to cost US$80 billion and aims to produce 44,000 megawatts to meet the energy needs of 40% of the continent. In June 2025, the World Bank committed US$250 million for technical studies.
- Horn of Africa Groundwater for Resilience mainly provides for the digging of wells and boreholes, and the construction of dams and ponds to benefit 3.3 million people. In June 2022, the World Bank Group provided US$385 million to tap into groundwater and improve climate resilience.
- Lesotho Highlands Water is a phased project aiming to provide water to 26 million South African people and hydropower for Lesotho. It is estimated that the ongoing second phase will cost US$3.2 billion.
- Stephen Dlamini dam project in South Africa cost almost US$49 million and is designed to provide a sustainable and permanent water supply to urban and rural communities.
The future: Rising demand and persistent risks
Water demand in sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to increase by 163% by 2050, four times the rate of change in Latin America, according to the World Resources Institute. Economic growth will increase water demand, while poor water management could reduce the region’s GDP by 6%.
Maria Pinzon, Global Head of Water Systems for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, warned that water conflicts are unlikely to decline in Africa without robust governance and investment. “If nothing changes, we’re looking at over 1,000 water-related conflicts per year across Africa by the mid-century,” she explained.
