World food commodity prices fell in January for the fifth month in a row, led by lower international prices for dairy, sugar, and meat products, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in a benchmark report. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 123.9 points in January, down 0.4 percent from the previous month and 0.6 percent from a year earlier.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased slightly by 0.2 percent from December, despite marginal declines in world wheat and maize prices. Ample wheat stocks offset weather-related concerns affecting dormant crops in Russia and the United States, while comfortable global maize supplies offset adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil and strong ethanol demand in the United States. By contrast, the FAO All-Rice Price Index rose by 1.8 percent from December, reflecting firmer demand for fragrant rice varieties.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 2.1 percent in January. World palm oil prices rose amid seasonal production slowdowns in Southeast Asia and firm global import demand, while world soy oil prices rebounded on tightening export availabilities in South America and expectations of robust biofuel demand in the United States. Global sunflower oil prices also increased, driven by supply tightness in the Black Sea region.
The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 0.4 percent from December, driven by lower pig meat prices amid ample global supplies and subdued international demand. Global poultry meat prices rose, mainly reflecting higher prices in Brazil underpinned by strong international demand. The FAO Dairy Price Index fell by 5.0 percent from December, driven largely by lower prices for cheese and butter amid ample availabilities. The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 1.0 percent in January, reflecting expectations of increased supplies in the current season, underpinned by a significant production rebound in India, favourable prospects in Thailand, and an overall positive production outlook in Brazil.
FAO also released its latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025, projecting total output at 3,023 million tonnes, with record harvests for wheat, coarse grains, and rice. World cereal utilization in 2025/26 is now forecast to increase by 2.2 percent from the previous year. Based on the updated supply and demand forecasts, global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 7.8 percent to a record high. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise to 31.8 percent, its highest level since 2001.
