The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and significant volumes of fertilisers flow — has seen ship traffic plummet from around 130 vessels a day before the conflict to single digits in early March, as reported by United Nations (UN). The strait is not formally closed, but it is effectively strangled, following Iranian attacks on shipping since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. The energy and commodity price spikes have grabbed headlines — but a slower-moving threat may prove just as damaging: a fertiliser shortage hitting precisely when farmers need to plant.
Frida Youssef, Chief of Economic Affairs at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), was direct about what a more than 95% drop in Strait traffic means in practice. “The disruption is no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz; it is spreading across regional shipping routes and affecting critical supply lines,” she said, with knock-on effects rippling through the Red Sea and beyond — slower shipments, longer routes, and rising costs for commercial and humanitarian supply chains alike.
The fertiliser dimension is particularly alarming. Nitrogen-based fertilisers depend heavily on Gulf gas, and production costs are already rising. With spring planting season underway — when farmers typically secure fertiliser for the next harvest — any shortage or price spike now translates directly into lower crop yields later. “Timing is critical,” Youssef noted.
The countries least equipped to absorb these shocks are the ones in the crosshairs. For the world’s least developed economies, higher costs for fuel, food, fertilisers, and transport can rapidly cascade into pressure on public finances, reduced agricultural output, and deepening food insecurity — particularly where import dependence is high.
UNCTAD is monitoring developments closely, providing data and analysis to governments, and working to coordinate responses across national and international partners. Youssef’s underlying message is one that cuts across all the technical complexity: “There is a shared global interest in keeping trade routes open, because disruptions of this scale affect all economies” — and the cost of inaction will not be shared equally.
